US Economics Weekly Trump conviction won't sway the election We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign. 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting were, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation slowly easing; activity softens The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on hi-tech & green-related goods imports from China this week, but they will have little impact on economic activity or inflation. Otherwise... 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Was April the sweetest or the cruellest month? After a quiet week for data this week, following April’s softer Employment Report, things will heat up again next week with April’s CPI report. 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. We still... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Have soft landing hopes been dashed? The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.6% annualised, from 3.4%, was more marked than expected, but it was principally due to a bigger drag from the net exports and inventories categories. With... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Protectionism seen as a vote winner by both parties In a campaign stop at a union headquarters this week, President Joe Biden called for a tripling of the tariffs on steel imports from China to 25%, from the current 7.5% rate, originally introduced by... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold until later this year The third consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in March, coming on the heels of the 303,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, fuelled fears that a pick-up in the real economy is now translating into a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Port closure to have no significant effects on economy The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is... 28th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and Biden to take centre stage Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week. But with the downward trend in core... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly PPI a kick in the teeth for inflation doves The much stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in core PPI in January came as a hammer blow for PCE estimates. Coming on the heels of the hot 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI, our calculations now... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
