US Economics Weekly Protectionism seen as a vote winner by both parties In a campaign stop at a union headquarters this week, President Joe Biden called for a tripling of the tariffs on steel imports from China to 25%, from the current 7.5% rate, originally introduced by... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed on hold until later this year The third consecutive 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI in March, coming on the heels of the 303,000 surge in non-farm payrolls, fuelled fears that a pick-up in the real economy is now translating into a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Supercore inflation fundamentals still improving This week brought more good news on the outlook for so-called supercore inflation. 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Port closure to have no significant effects on economy The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is... 28th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed opens door a little further to June rate cut The Fed wasn’t as hawkish as we had expected this week and, assuming the recent upturn in core inflation proves temporary, there is still a good chance that interest rate cuts will begin in June. 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to stress caution amid inflation uncertainty We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates in June, although we don’t expect officials to provide a strong steer either for or against at next week’s FOMC meeting. The updated Summary of Economic... 15th March 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and Biden to take centre stage Fed Chair Jerome Powell looks set to echo his colleagues in suggesting that rate cuts are likely to begin “later this year” in his testimony to Congress next week. But with the downward trend in core... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly PPI a kick in the teeth for inflation doves The much stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in core PPI in January came as a hammer blow for PCE estimates. Coming on the heels of the hot 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI, our calculations now... 16th February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Bond vigilantes fiddle, as budget burns New projections released by the CBO this week show that although the Federal budget deficit is expected to be a bit smaller than previously assumed, it remains on an unsustainable path. Moreover, with... 9th February 2024 · 9 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell preaches caution amid jobs bonanza Based on the steer provided by Fed Chair Jerome Powell halfway through this week’s press conference, we now expect the first Fed rate cut to come at the early-May FOMC meeting rather than in mid-March... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Immaculate disinflation almost complete It is hard to say which is more remarkable: that GDP growth accelerated last year following the Fed’s most aggressive tightening campaign in decades, or that core inflation nevertheless fell back to... 26th January 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Could disinflation go too far? We argued last week that there was little to support the idea that the “last mile” of getting inflation back to 2% will somehow be the hardest. But new data on rent inflation released this week raise... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump faces first test in Iowa Donald Trump is still the prohibitive favourite to win the Republican presidential nomination. But the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the primary season this coming Monday, should provide insight into... 12th January 2024 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still coy about QT end-game The minutes of the mid-December FOMC meeting did not dissuade us that the Fed will start to cut interest rates from this March onwards. Despite now projecting more interest rate cuts this year, Fed... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read