US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q4 2025: Returns of 4.9% highlight modest recovery Total returns of 1.1% q/q in Q4 2025 were more-or-less unchanged from the previous quarter and helped returns for 2025 rise to just under 5%. That highlights the modest recovery in commercial real... 26th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have data center REIT prices and asset values diverged? The divergence between data center REIT performance and data center asset values over the last year appears to reflect the high level of uncertainty in the sector. Questions over power constraints... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update At least two more years of divergence between South and West We expect continued divergence in both total non-farm and office-sector job growth across the largest metros over the next two years. Those in the South will continue to significantly outperform the... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2026 We expect another slow year for investment in 2026 and a correspondingly poor (and below-consensus) outlook for total returns. On the bright side the improving apartments outlook will see it return 7%... 13th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2025 key calls for US CRE Although we were right in expecting a slow recovery in investment transactions in 2025 and for office CMBS delinquency rates to climb further, stretched valuations did not result in another fall in... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 PREA consensus trimmed forecasts again, but not enough The Q4 PREA consensus downgraded the all-property forecast for 2026-29. Even so, the consensus is still notably more optimistic than us. Indeed, stretched valuations mean we expect a modest rise in... 9th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Senior housing returns to exceed 10% p.a. over 2026-30 Solid demand and a lack of new supply mean we expect senior housing vacancy rates to reach record lows in 2027 and stay at low levels in the following years, helping rent gains averages 4.5% p.a. over... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 US RICS survey shows growing market confidence Investment sentiment saw a sharp improvement in Q3, buoyed by falling interest rates and growing confidence in the economic outlook, although foreign enquiries remained in the doldrums. There was also... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q3 2025: Same old, same old Capital values were broadly flat in Q3 and total returns reached 1.2% q/q, unchanged from Q2. While the main sector ranking is consistent with our views – retail and residential leading, office and... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Self-storage valuations look most stretched of all main sectors Self-storage cap rates are roughly on par with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is well short of the 200bps spread seen over the last 10 years. Coupled with an uninspiring outlook for rent growth... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and residential sectors set to outperform globally In a period of slow economic growth but stabilising inflation and earnings growth, we expect the residential sector to see the strongest rental growth globally, with industrial close behind thanks to... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New lead indicator points to short-lived capital value growth Our new CE Capital Value Lead Indicator suggests that all-property capital growth may finally turn positive on an annual basis in H2 2025. But importantly, it also suggests that any growth this year... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why have multifamily and industrial delinquency rates diverged? The CMBS delinquency rate for multifamily was the second highest in August, largely reflecting relatively loose lending practices around the turn of the decade which has led to an outsized impact from... 1st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 PREA consensus forecasts predict a steady recovery for US CRE The latest PREA consensus forecasts showed a minor downgrade in the all-property forecast, both for the next two years and the 2025-29 average. That was driven by downgrades in the residential, senior... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Dallas and Memphis out in front for warehouse rent prospects Our refreshed analysis of the 34 largest US warehousing markets puts Dallas and Memphis in a close-fought battle for the top. Kansas City and Phoenix have risen up our rankings since last year, while... 4th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Poor recovery in home sales to weigh on self-storage rents The slow recovery we expect in home sales over the coming years will be a key factor limiting self-storage demand from returning to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, even though completions will... 28th August 2025 · 5 mins read
