UK Commercial Property Update Residential rental growth to outperform The Q1 RICS commercial survey provided further evidence that occupier demand has turned the corner, with demand ticking up in the industrial and office sectors. But with availability still elevated... 25th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Apr. 24) All-property yields have been broadly stable since the start of the year. Higher-than-expected interest rates mean yields may see a further small rise over the next few months, but we still think they... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Permanent online shift is mixed news for retail The latest e-commerce statistics suggest that the pandemic has left US online sales on a permanently higher trend. That will be bad news for retail rents generally, though the detailed data also hint... 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Expect subpar rental performance in Germany While rental performance in German commercial property markets has been relatively solid given the country’s poor economic performance over the past five or so years, we think this is set to end. 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Answering questions from our recent Drop-In This week we held a Drop-In on the outlook for euro-zone commercial property. Clients can access a recording here. This Update provides answers to the most interesting questions that emerged from the... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook A tough year in store, but retail returns will be positive This year is being flagged by many as the year the recovery starts, but there is still a substantial amount of pain (and value falls) to come. We think activity will gradually pick up in H2, but... 22nd March 2024 · 22 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Further value falls to come, but should reach trough in H2 Further near-term yield rises will push property values lower in the coming quarters, but better valuations, falling interest rates and improving economic activity suggest a trough should be reached... 21st March 2024 · 31 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rents rising but a retail renaissance in 2024 is unlikely The revival of prime retail rental growth in 2023 ended a three-year rental decline for the sector. This likely marks the end of retail’s rental woes and we have nudged up our prime rent forecast for... 14th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online share developments not all bad news The online share of retail sales is still above its pre-pandemic trend, but a closer look suggests that is perhaps not as bad for the retail sector as it looks. For example, the share of online... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: US CRE Outlook – When’s the recovery? 1710860400 US commercial real estate prices may have fallen 15% from their peaks – led by a 30% plunge in office values – but this isn’t over.
Event CRE Drop-In: Unpacking the slowest commercial real estate recovery on record 1710257400 The recovery that we’re forecasting for the US, UK and euro-zone commercial property markets is likely to be the weakest on record.
UK Commercial Property Outlook A recovery, but not much of one With property yields close to a peak and rental growth surprising on the upside, total returns will turn positive in 2024. But we doubt the fall in risk-free interest rates we expect will trigger any... 23rd February 2024 · 23 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) Our Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis. The property correction slowed slightly at the end of last year, but we think the fall in capital... 23rd February 2024 · 0 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: UK commercial property’s muted recovery 1709114400 All-property total returns will turn positive in 2024 but we don’t think the recovery will be much to write home about.
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 24) All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the... 20th February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is debt distress in Europe? Falling interest rates will not prevent a rise in refinancing distress in Europe in the coming years – debt funding gaps will be large and forced selling will increase. However, financing pressures... 7th February 2024 · 20 mins read
