Commodities Update

Your latest commodities questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received.

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (May 2024)

We think that oil prices have further to fall, as we expect OPEC+ to gradually increase output later this year. Prices have recently fallen as worries that the conflict in the Middle East could affect...

8th May 2024 · 1 min read

Energy Chart Pack

Energy Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Energy Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The fall in oil prices since Iran and Israel’s back-and-forth attacks suggests that some of the...

7th May 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook

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Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so.

Energy Update

Japan’s LNG demand to sink; Korea’s to fall more slowly

A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Rising risks to energy supply, but not time to overreact

In a week that started with Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel and which ended with Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, it is somewhat surprising that the price of Brent crude fell. After all...

19th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Precious metals rise again; gas markets unstable

The stronger-than-expected US CPI data for March may have sent the dollar and Treasury yields higher but commodity prices largely shrugged off the news. Indeed, precious metals rose strongly this week...

12th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Energy prices to cool, but metals to hold firm for now

We expect most commodity prices to fall over the next couple of years as greater supply enters the market. Industrial metals are the exception, China’s policymakers have stepped up stimulus in recent...

4th April 2024 · 33 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Baltimore tragedy not a major issue for energy flows

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are...

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Energy Update

Russia’s gas exports past nadir, crude to keep flowing

The winner of Russia’s election may be a foregone conclusion but the outlook for its oil and gas sector isn’t. A tightening of sanctions is an ever-present risk and the outcome of the war is uncertain...

13th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Overview Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under...

12th March 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ras el Hekma deal, Qatar’s LNG expansion boost

The deal in which Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, ADQ, will invest $35bn in the Ras el-Hekma project will provide much needed foreign currency inflows for Egypt’s economy. But, even with this...

29th February 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Falls in prices starting to hit supply

The prices of a number of individual commodities benefitted this week from producers announcing cuts to supply. Lower supply growth is one of the factors supporting our forecast of modest gains in US...

23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Russia election 2024 – War, sanctions and commodities

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The outcome of Russia’s presidential election is a forgone conclusion.

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 · 5 mins read