Commodities Update The road back to energy normality is getting longer The longer the disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues, the more complex any eventual pick-up in energy flows will be. Oil prices could clearly fall back sharply as/if/when... 21st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflationary effects of Iran war are set to broaden Higher energy costs have pushed up fuel prices in the euro-zone while the impact on other components of the consumer price basket has so far been very small. But the inflationary effects of the Iran... 20th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Seasonal dynamics to support natural gas prices in H2 The fact that Asian buyers of LNG from the Middle East have so far curtailed demand has helped to limit the upward pressure on natural gas prices. But even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, a... 19th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone less reliant on fossil fuels than in 2022 The euro-zone’s declining reliance on fossil fuels – driven by lower overall energy demand and a shift towards renewables – means that the economy is becoming less sensitive to higher fossil fuel... 13th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The Strait reopens; how energy markets are adapting to war Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial vessels for the duration of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire has led to a slump in oil prices and offers a path to the resumption of... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ headline inflation to rise further, core little changed Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Putting the euro-zone’s energy price shock in context In our baseline scenario, the euro-zone’s energy import bill rises by 0.4% of GDP this year, which is not unusually high. In our adverse scenario it increases by three times this amount, which is high... 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation... 10th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) It is early days into this ceasefire and there is huge uncertainty around whether it holds and, if it doesn’t, what it means for future negotiations and strikes on energy facilities. For what it’s... 10th April 2026 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Unpicking the energy market implications of the ceasefire Energy prices plunged following the announcement of the ceasefire earlier in the week, but the fragile status of the truce and the fact that very few ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in... 10th April 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil gains lift Angola and Nigeria, but Mozambique strained The surge in energy prices from the Middle East conflict will boost incomes in Angola and Nigeria and upcoming elections and persistent spending pressures mean that much of the windfall is likely to... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Certainty and conviction in short supply among energy execs The latest Dallas Fed survey suggests that US energy executives are cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook, but it also underlines how the lack of certainty is complicating investment... 27th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update What to know on energy markets & demand destruction With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy market meltdown; gold failing to shine The attack on Qatar’s LNG export hub, which has knocked out 3-4% of global LNG supplies, grabbed the headlines and has caused natural gas and LNG prices to spike. On the face of it, there is some... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
