Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jul. 2021) Japan’s export volumes stagnated in July but given that a large share of those exports are cars and capital goods, we think they will rise again over the coming months. 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A dive into Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments A rise in oil prices has supported an improvement in Saudi Arabia’s current account position, which should be in surplus over the coming years. That, combined with signs that the sovereign wealth fund... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Jul.) There was a broad-based slowdown in all the key indicators last month. This partly reflects disruptions to consumer activity due to the recent virus flare-up and flooding in central China. But... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit no major concern The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in July was due in large part to the continued rebound in imports as containment measures were scaled back further. The trade deficit may widen a little... 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jun. 2021) Given that most of the rise in exports last quarter was driven by higher commodity prices, net exports probably provided another big drag on GDP growth in Q2. But we think that won’t last much longer. 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Is it time to worry about Romania’s current account? The widening of Romania’s current account deficit to a 10-year high partly reflects a rise in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings which is not a concern. But the trade balance has also worsened and the... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update SDR allocation a positive but won’t solve debt woes The $650bn allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that was finally signed off by the IMF yesterday should provide welcome relief to some frontier markets such as Ghana and Kenya that still... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are plateauing, after reaching very high levels. While we expect some softening ahead as final demand weakens a touch, a sharp pullback in exports is... 2nd August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
