Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th July) July data add to evidence that Korean exports are starting to plateau, after reaching very high levels. We expect some softening ahead as supply chain shortages bite and final demand weakens a touch. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 2021) The rebound in exports showed further signs of slowing in June despite another high y/y growth rate caused by base effects. We think external demand will only provide a small tailwind to growth over... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at... 20th July 2021 · 34 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
India Economics Update Wider trade deficit won’t threaten external position The widening in India’s goods trade deficit in June came on the back of a rebound in imports amid the lifting of containment measures and the recent rally in global oil prices. But while the economic... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten as bust turns to boom Sydney’s lockdown will keep a lid on Australia’s recovery for now, but booming housing markets should support consumer spending and dwellings investment in both countries. We don’t expect labour... 15th July 2021 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage negotiations, Ethiopia debt restructuring South Africa’s government is giving up further ground in wage negotiations with trade unions, raising the threat that the austerity plans unravel. Elsewhere, Ethiopia has revealed plans to restructure... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Faster vaccine campaign allows rapid rebound Japan’s lagging vaccine rollout has finally reached cruising speed, which should allow a rapid recovery in activity over the second half of the year. The labour market may soon be as tight as it was... 7th July 2021 · 22 mins read
India Economics Weekly Taking stock of the latest fiscal package The new fiscal package announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman this week will only have a limited impact on both the central budget deficit and demand. It appears that the government feels it... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Changing views on China, export demand peaking While China’s Communist Party was celebrating its achievements at its official centenary this week, a global survey revealed a sharp decline in popular enthusiasm for economic engagement with China in... 2nd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook Rebound underway, but relapse risks grow India’s ferocious second virus wave is subsiding as quickly as it emerged, enabling the recovery to get back on track. However, the rapid scaling back of containment measures that is underway... 1st July 2021 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (May 2021) While export values hit a record high in May, this was largely driven by soaring export prices and export volumes probably dropped back. However, we think that the drag from net trade on GDP growth... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (June) After a strong end to the month, Korean export values reached a fresh all-time high in June. But with some signs external demand is levelling off and semiconductor shortages are biting, we suspect... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
