Japan Economics Focus What does deglobalisation mean for Japan? There are good reasons to think that the natural stalling in globalisation underway won’t do much damage to Japanese manufacturers. And while an abrupt severing of supply chains between China on the... 21st September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Shipping costs to boost inflation next year Soaring shipping costs will exacerbate the impact of the weaker exchange rate on import price inflation. Indeed, we expect underlying inflation to return into the RBA’s 2-3% target next year. 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Aug. 2021) Today’s trade figures suggest that export volumes kept rising and we think that Japan’s focus on cars and machinery means that they will hold up better than in other Asian economies. 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Aug.) The hit to service activity from last month’s virus outbreak was even larger than we, and other forecasters, had anticipated. The rest of the economy held up better, although the headwinds facing the... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
China Data Response China Trade (Aug.) Exports and imports were much stronger than anticipated last month thanks to buoyant demand, even as the data point to some lingering supply shortages. We continue to think shipments will soften in... 7th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM current account balances: where do the risks lie? With external positions in decent shape in most major EMs, the macroeconomic fallout from any tightening of external financing conditions should be limited. But there are a handful of EMs which look... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jul. 2021) The record trade surplus in July was largely driven by stronger commodity prices which won’t last. But we expect weaker domestic demand to weigh on imports over the coming months which should see... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (August) Having flattened off in previous months, exports saw a renewed rise in August. While this is unlikely to mark the start of another surge, we still expect exports to remain elevated over the coming... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The Caixin manufacturing index dropped to an 18-month low in August, adding to signs from the official PMI released yesterday that industry is coming off the boil. The surveys point to worsening... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rising political risks in Ethiopia, SA GDP revision’s pros? An internal political conflict in Ethiopia is escalating with an all-out civil war no longer a remote prospect. Strains in the country’s already fragile balance sheet are growing and a messy sovereign... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Delta not clipping the wings of RBNZ hawks yet New Zealand has entered a draconian lockdown and new infections continue to rise. The lockdown prompted the RBNZ to refrain from hiking interest rates at its August meeting and financial markets were... 26th August 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows would be no major macro concern Foreign portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have been easing this month, bucking the broader EM trend. This may have been driven in part by the improvement in the virus situation. Looking... 25th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st - 20th August) Korean export values look set to hold steady at elevated levels in August. With few signs of a drag from virus disruptions, the levelling off in exports probably instead reflects a plateau in final... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: more hikes to come The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) hiked interest rates today to help support the currency. With the rupee likely to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, further rate hikes are... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
