Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s current account, the peso and FX debts The further widening of Chile’s current account deficit in Q2 combined with an increased reliance on portfolio inflows leave the Chilean peso vulnerable to a deterioration in investor risk appetite... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks beginning to shift focus The growth outlook for the emerging world has taken a turn for the worse. The latest activity data for China suggest that the post-lockdown recovery has lost steam. The PBOC has responded by lowering... 23rd August 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the impact of US economic weakness Weakness in the US economy over the coming quarters is likely to result in softer (rather than a collapse in) demand for Mexico’s goods exports as supply constraints fade, but the recovery in the... 22nd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn will weigh on activity before long Australia’s house prices are now falling at a similar rate as they did during the 2017-19 downturn, which was the largest in the country’s modern history. Home sales remain well above pre-pandemic... 22nd August 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the Central Bank of Egypt The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer yesterday has further increased scrutiny of the country’s exchange rate policy. A weaker pound is clearly needed, preferably under an... 18th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q2) Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the... 18th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun. 2022) The surge in Australia’s trade surplus to yet another record-high in June suggests that net exports will boost Q2 GDP growth by around 1%-pt though that tailwind will fade before long. 4th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound has a lot further to fall Spillovers from the war in Ukraine have caused Egypt’s large current account deficit to widen this year and, with the country struggling to attract stable forms of external financing, officials will... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Jun.) The chunky increase in unsecured borrowing in June suggests that households are having to rely more on credit due to the cost of living crisis. But households won’t be able to fully offset the hit to... 29th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies feeling the oil boost The recently-released activity data from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain confirmed that strong hydrocarbon production supported rapid economic growth at the start of this year. And strong... 27th July 2022 · 10 mins read
