Event Drop-In: Spotlight – What an era of economic fracturing could mean for markets 13th October 2022, 9:00AM BST
Event Drop-In: Spotlight – The fracturing of the global economy and its macro consequences 10th October 2022, 9:00AM BST
China Economics Weekly Taiwan tensions add impetus to decoupling If China’s military drills off the coast of Taiwan end, as scheduled, on Sunday and there is no further retaliation, this week’s flare-up in tension won’t have a direct economic impact. But it will... 5th August 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update China doesn’t appear to want an economic fight The trade sanctions introduced by China on Taiwan in retaliation for the visit of Nancy Pelosi are small in scope rather than serious efforts to force Taipei to shift course. China is constrained in... 3rd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The economic consequences of an attack on Taiwan China’s leadership has options other than invasion to coerce Taiwan to submit to its political control. The immediate economic and financial ramifications would differ in each case. But any scenario... 2nd August 2022 · 23 mins read
China Economics Focus What will China do with its FX reserves? In adapting to the threat of having its foreign exchange reserves frozen, the People’s Bank is likely to shift more of its portfolio into unconventional alternatives, including EM sovereign debt and... 1st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Update The dollar won’t be toppled Claims that the war in Ukraine will prove to be a watershed moment that ends the dollar’s position at the heart of the global financial system are wide of the mark. It could accelerate the development... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus Mapping decoupling China and countries that align more closely with it than with the US together account for around half of the world’s population. But the China bloc is far smaller economically than the US bloc and far... 17th September 2021 · 26 mins read
China Economics Weekly A milestone in financial decoupling Decoupling has entered a new phase over the past year. Where China previously was trying to temper US efforts to decouple, in key areas it now appears to want the same. This week a turning point was... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer boycotts will accelerate decoupling Consumer boycotts of foreign firms in China are becoming more frequent and harder for the firms involved to deflect. Government restriction on multinationals’ foreign activities are also becoming more... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Biden victory is not a win for China A Biden presidency won’t reverse the tide of US-China decoupling and could lead to economic strains on new fronts if climate change and human rights become greater US priorities. Our senior China... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly What if Chinese banks are cut off from SWIFT? Financial decoupling between the US and China could be far more disruptive to both China and the global economy than anything the Trump administration has attempted so far. But much of what is... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Phase One, Wall Street and the renminbi The Phase One trade deal signed this week includes commitments by China to refrain from competitive devaluations and widen market access for US non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). We doubt the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus The Phase One deal and its impact on China The trade deal between the US and China marks an end to the first phase of the trade war. China’s pledges on imports from the US are unlikely to be met but that may not matter to the deal’s long-term... 15th January 2020 · 11 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoupling, and its impact on growth The rift that has widened between China and the US was caused by China’s emergence as a geopolitical competitor to the US, rather than the personality of Donald Trump. Decoupling will continue whether... 17th October 2019 · 20 mins read
