Africa Economics Update Where will South Africa sit in a fracturing world? South Africa has traditionally sought to be non-aligned and, in our ‘mapping decoupling’ work, we placed it in neither the US nor the China camp. But recent developments suggest that it could be... 16th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt restructuring in a fracturing global economy The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines straddling US-China rift, IMF too optimistic So far, the Philippines appears to be successfully straddling the geopolitical divide as it tries to improve its political and military ties with the US, while also building on its strong economic... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Is Brazil joining the renminbi club? China and Brazil are taking steps to allow bilateral trade to be settled in renminbi, another sign of closer ties between the two countries following President Lula’s election. But talk of them... 31st March 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly A more targeted approach to chipmaking support China is retooling its approach to strengthening domestic chipmaking capabilities. But the obstacles the country faces still look insurmountable at the high-end of the sector. Meanwhile, upcoming data... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Long-term manufacturing hopes brewing The overarching message from our latest India Economic Outlook published this week is that while prospects for the economy look a little uninspiring over the near term, there are reasons to be... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Focus The economic impact of fracturing on Australia The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade... 15th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of restored Saudi-Iran ties The restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran adds to signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which may help to reduce risk premia in financial assets in the... 13th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Long Run Drop-In: Fracturing and the global economy and markets through 2050 28th February 2023, 3:00PM GMT The war in Ukraine. Ageing populations. Rising temperatures.
US Economics Update American protectionism and global fracturing While it is in America’s strategic interests to build stronger economic ties with allies to counter China’s growth, its protectionist tendencies could undermine those goals and blunt the effectiveness... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Budget has an eye on the long term While some of the measures unveiled in the FY23/24 Union Budget are geared towards shoring up popular support ahead of next year’s general election, there is a clear long-term focus too. The projected... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Common currency, new FX forecasts, Bolivia’s lithium Argentina and Brazil’s plan to establish a common unit of account to increase bilateral trade and reduce their dependence on the dollar misdiagnoses the main impediments to both goals. Elsewhere... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
