Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2024) The strength in Turkey’s economy in Q1 – GDP expanded by a whopping 2.4% q/q – was driven by a large boost from net trade while private consumption growth slowed sharply. This offers signs that the... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Reluctance to inflict pain comes back to bite the RBA We aren't convinced that the further pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in the Monthly CPI Indicator in April will be replicated in the quarterly measure that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers... 31st May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2024) The jump in the Caixin services PMI means that the survey data for May now suggest economic momentum remained fairly robust last month. We think strength in exports, a step-up in fiscal support and... 31st May 2024 (Updated 5th June 2024) · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr. 24) On balance, the modest decline in industrial production and the rebound in retail sales in April point to a decent rebound in GDP this quarter. 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Global growth to slow following strong Q1 The stronger than expected Q1 GDP data in several major economies suggest that the global economy got off to a strong start in 2024. But we expect global growth to fall back to a slightly below-trend... 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth holding up, but on unstable footing Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic momentum remains reasonably robust, fuelled by continued gains in manufacturing and a further recovery in services activity. A step-up in fiscal support... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (May 2024) Headline inflation across most of Emerging Asia is now either below or only slightly above central bank targets. Nevertheless, policymakers have struck a slightly more hawkish tone recently due to... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were a mixed bag in May and our regional-weighted measure edged down slightly. Even so, that still leaves... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (May) and Unemployment (April 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for May is consistent with weak growth in euro-zone GDP, while price pressures are still strong but are continuing to ease. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked... 30th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Sheinbaum presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico’s election on Sunday is likely to see a continuation of Amlo’s generous social policies – which will also make Banxico’s fight against inflation harder. The... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024) Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Labor isn’t wrecking the economy just yet Labor’s regulatory push can’t be blamed for the recent slump in labour productivity and we aren’t convinced that it will hold back future productivity growth much either. Indeed, we still think that a... 28th May 2024 (Updated 28th May 2024) · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Mission (almost) accomplished The further fall in headline inflation in April, to a three-year low of 2.6%, means the 2% target could be achieved as soon as August. Whether the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in a couple of... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
