Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (June 2025) The rise in the Ifo BCI in June suggests that activity in Germany has not yet been meaningfully hit by US tariffs. But output remains weak and we think a proper recovery will only materialise next... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and the impact on the Gulf The Gulf economies are vulnerable if Iran decides to attack oil infrastructure in the region, or block the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for the strikes by Israel and the US. So long as that is... 23rd June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is mostly extended, keeping tariffs at 10% for countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. Tariffs will not cause a recession –... 23rd June 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Inflation at the target but growth will be weak The euro-zone’s strong first-quarter growth rate was a result of tariff front-running and will be reversed in Q2 and be followed by weak growth in the second half of the year. Further ahead, we think... 23rd June 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025) June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (June 25) With output expanding at a healthy pace and price pressures set to remain relatively firm, we continue to believe the Bank of Japan will deliver its next rate hike sooner than most anticipate. 23rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney plays hardball on US trade deal A US-Canada trade deal centered on lowering the most onerous US duties, like those on steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, would not stop the economy from slowing later this year, but it would improve... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Middle-East conflict clouds ECB outlook Our base case remains that the Israel-Iran conflict eases, energy prices drop back and the ECB cuts rates one more time in this cycle. But if energy prices stay around their current levels further... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Demographics adding to fiscal pressures As time marches on, the once distant threat of demographic pressures for many countries, especially those in Europe, is fast becoming a reality. This adds to the other pressures on the public finances... 20th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2025) The early evidence suggests that EM exports have held up well so far, despite higher US tariffs. That’s partly because exporters have front-loaded shipments to the US or (in China's case) have avoided... 20th June 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2025) The sharp 2.7% m/m drop back in retail sales volumes in May adds to other evidence that the burst of economic growth in Q1 is over. That said, consumer spending may still outperform other areas of the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Slowing migration may keep RBA in a dovish mood Australia's population growth has declined by nearly 1%-pt since its post-pandemic peak, driven in large part by a normalisation in international student arrivals. The drop in foreign student numbers... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly - No signs that trade tensions are weighing on inflation The Bank of Japan retained its downbeat outlook at this week’s meeting. But with the economic data holding up despite trade tensions and inflation set to overshoot the Board’s forecasts by a sizeable... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
