Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) It is possible that price pressures are a little stronger than the CPI data for the fourth quarter suggest. But the main message is that inflation is still hovering just below the 2-3% target and it... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production recorded another marked rise last quarter which suggests that GDP growth remained strong. However, the outlook for the coming months is less rosy. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects still bright, after strong Q4 National accounts data published in the past few days confirm that the world economy maintained its momentum in Q4 last year, and all the signs are that it has started 2018 on a strong note. We expect... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The 1.0% q/q rebound in Mexican GDP in Q4 was larger than expected but needs to be viewed alongside the -0.3% q/q contraction in Q3. While a stronger US economy will provide a prop to growth this year... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region to mount a recovery Growth in the Middle East and North Africa slowed to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2017, but the region is set for a recovery over the next twelve months. The rebound in growth... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4, prelim. flash) & EC Survey (Jan.) Euro-zone GDP growth continued at a healthy pace in Q4 and, while the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in January, it continues to point to a pick-up in growth to come. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that growth in the region as a whole may have picked up even further at the start of this year, to about 5.5-5.8% y/y... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2017) The preliminary estimate of Polish annual 2017 GDP, which showed an expansion of 4.6% over the year as a whole, suggests that growth may have accelerated to as much as 5.4% y/y in Q4. This appears to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF (Jan.) Despite January’s sharp fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, the indicator is still broadly consistent with annual GDP growth picking up to around 2%. With exporters benefiting from a weaker... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics French & Spanish GDP (Q4) The French economy’s healthy expansion in Q4 rounded off a strong year, while surveys point to an acceleration in growth ahead. Meanwhile, tensions in Catalonia had little impact on Spanish growth. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Consumer Spending (Dec.) While the jobless rate edged up in December, the continued rise in job vacancies suggest it will fall to fresh lows before long. Meanwhile, consumer spending should have rebounded last quarter even... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Life left in the region’s recovery While the rest of the global economy experienced a pick-up in growth towards the end of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth in Latin America flat-lined at around 2.5% y/y in Q4 –... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will Brexit uncertainty finally bite in 2018? A key reason why most forecasters were too gloomy about the UK economy last year was that Brexit-related uncertainty was much less damaging than they had expected. Judging by the gloominess of... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Getting back into gear We expect that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to accelerate in 2018. This recovery will be driven largely by faster growth in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s two biggest... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
