Europe Data Response Irish GDP (Q4) Ireland’s GDP had another very strong year in 2017. While that tells us little about actual economic activity taking place in the country, other more reliable indicators suggest that the economy... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Risk of a step change in policy when Orr takes the helm The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at Grant Spencer’s final meeting as Governor on Thursday 22nd March and it’s likely to reiterate that... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q4) The economy failed to regain any momentum at the end 2017 with the production measure of GDP rising by a fairly subdued 0.6% q/q in the fourth quarter, as it did in the third. Looking ahead, we expect... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Warning signs start to flash in Turkey’s economy The sheer pace of growth in Turkey looks increasingly like a cause for concern and there is mounting evidence that the economy is now overheating. Previous such episodes of overheating have been... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia not turning its back on free trade Less than a week after the official launch of the 11-country Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) at a ceremony in Chile, other countries are already queuing... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about Polish fiscal policy? Fiscal policy in Poland is set to be loosened further this year, which is one reason why economic growth is likely to remain strong. There aren’t any imminent concerns about the health of the public... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Today’s data are broadly upbeat and suggest that the Chinese economy had a strong start to the year. But we expect growth to begin slowing again in the months ahead as the one-off boost to output from... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in March was a welcome sight following January’s weaker than expected retail sales figures, we remain cautious about the outlook for... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Expansion has become shakier Revised GDP figures confirmed that the economic recovery continued apace in Q4. However, the more recent monthly activity data suggest that the longest period of uninterrupted expansion since the late... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) The rebound in machinery orders in January lifted them above their Q4 average. With firms facing severe capacity and staff shortages, business investment will remain a growth driver this year. 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industrial production stagnated in m/m terms in January, but this was partly payback for a strong 1.0% m/m increase in December. The breakdown reveals that the disruption to industry from... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing production Manufacturing output growth in South Africa jumped to 2.5% y/y in January, supporting our view that the economy retained momentum at the beginning of the year. 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Piñera inherits strengthening economy Chile’s new president Sebastián Piñera is inheriting an economy with some cyclical momentum and we expect the recovery to continue over the course of this year. That said, growth over his four-year... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Life after the booms The economy will probably cope reasonably well even though both the mining and housing booms are over, but over the next couple of years it is unlikely to strengthen as much as policymakers hope. Over... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update North Korea, Trump and South Korea’s economy Donald Trump’s decision to accept an invitation to visit North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, represents an extraordinary turn of events, and comes just a few months after the US president was calling... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus US fiscal stimulus to have limited global impact The Trump fiscal stimulus, which has turned out to be larger than seemed likely a few months ago, should boost economic growth in the US a little, and encourage the Fed to press on with six rate hikes... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
