Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the manufacturing malaise spread to services? The current global economic slowdown may descend into something more serious if manufacturing drags services down with it. Fortunately, there are reasons to think that the spillovers from the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Hungarian bank lending unlikely to last The recovery in Hungarian private sector credit has been an important driver of GDP growth in recent years, but we think that the credit boom doesn’t have much further to run. 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Recent strength unlikely to last Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained strong at the start of Q3. However, with external headwinds mounting and property development likely to moderate, economic activity looks... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update The worst is now over, but growth to remain weak For all the bad news on the global economy recently, it looks as if GDP growth across Emerging Asia held broadly stable last quarter. Although growth is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) July’s Russia activity data suggest that, after recovering slightly in Q2, the economy may have lost a bit of momentum at the start of Q3. This, combined with easing inflationary pressures, will leave... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 1.6% y/y in Q1 to 1.9% y/y in Q2, is likely to mark the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) GDP figures released today for the second quarter show that growth in Thailand slowed sharply to an almost five-year low. With weak global demand and a downturn in the tourism sector likely to drag on... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK different? Whereas US yield curve inversions are close to a fool-proof predictor of US recessions, a recession in the UK has only followed inversions in the gilt yield curve on 50% of occasions. That’s not... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A decent Q2 for the region, Turkey & market turmoil The preliminary Q2 GDP figures released this week showed that Russia staged a recovery, while strong domestic demand helped growth in Central Europe to hold up well. But the early evidence suggests... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly More ‘Buharinomics’, signs of Q2 rebound in Nigeria, SA Despite fears to the contrary, calls this week by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to tighten restrictions on access to foreign currency are likely to have little effect on inflation. But they... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Global recession fears, Indonesia to move capital city Weak data earlier this week from China and Europe and the fall in long term bond yields in the US have helped raise fears of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. But even if the global economy... 16th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The 3.7% m/m fall in Turkish industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP growth in Q2 was much weaker than in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that the scale of the fall in output was... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough A slump in exports by foreign firms is behind much of the recent slowdown in industrial production. While Chinese officials may appreciate the irony of foreign-owned factories being the worst hit by... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in Q2, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We are forecasting a renewed slowdown in the second half of this year, driven by weaker consumer spending... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
