Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for August suggest that regional growth remained strong in Q3 at a little under 4% y/y. 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Treasury plan puts pressure on president The unexpected release of economic reform proposals by South Africa’s treasury is probably an attempt to push the president to announce a more ambitious plan at October’s budget speech. The plan... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway’s GDP (Q2) This morning’s release of Q2 GDP data from Norway confirms that the economy remains a bright spot in the Nordics. But given that oil prices are now in line with our end-year forecast of $60pb, we... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Further FDI reform is still likely Measures announced by the government yesterday to loosen restrictions on FDI are a welcome step and we think that further reforms aimed at attracting foreign investment are likely over the coming... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipments and weaker RMB are blunting US tariffs China’s share of global exports has increased over the past year, despite US tariffs. Renminbi depreciation and the transhipments of goods to the US via neighbouring countries can take much of the... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q2) The rebound in machinery and equipment investment won’t be enough to offset a slump in construction activity and private investment probably fell the most since 2016 in the second quarter. However... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade deal reduces the risk of US car tariffs The trade deal that the US and Japan have negotiated won’t provide major benefits for Japan’s economy. And while it seems to have reduced the risk that the US imposes any tariffs on Japanese car... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update US tariffs strengthen the case for easing, weaker RMB With President Trump adding yet more US tariffs to the pipeline, the impact on China’s economy is starting to add up. With the drag on GDP growth set to rise to nearly one percentage point before long... 26th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Political risk back on the agenda Despite the poor global outlook, GDP growth across Emerging Asia actually picked up slightly in the second quarter, and our forecast is for a further gradual recovery over the remainder of the year... 26th August 2019 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The money supply is not what it used to be Growth in the money supply has picked-up in Australia but we don’t think the money supply has much of a relationship with economic activity. Even so, banks have started to ease lending standards which... 26th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The sky isn’t falling There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Corporate tax cut, Kerala floods If implemented, the corporate tax cut suggested by a government panel this week wouldn’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But it would be indicative of a more accommodative fiscal stance... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost The planned subsidies to encourage firms to hire more regular workers may lift wage growth a bit. Meanwhile, the upcoming Rugby World Cup could provide a welcome boost to demand as it will happen... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest no respite for manufacturing PMI surveys for August imply that growth in advanced economies has slowed further in the third quarter. But one crumb of comfort is that the weakness in manufacturing has not yet weighed much on... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The trivial increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August still leaves it consistent with feeble GDP growth this quarter and won’t put the ECB off easing policy next month. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
