US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) June’s gain in sales was flattered by the energy sector, but the key take away is that another rise in unfilled orders bodes well for growth in the third quarter and suggests inflationary pressures... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after an EM currency crisis? Both Turkey and Argentina have now suffered currency crises this year. In previous EM currency crises, economies experienced a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, averaging 5-6%-pts, and a rise in inflation... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected increase in retail sales volumes in July suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the pipeline. 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jul.) The deterioration in the trade balance in July reflects a combination of rising import volumes and higher energy prices. We expect crude oil prices to fall over the coming months so the trade balance... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% increase in manufacturing output in July adds to the evidence that growth in the manufacturing sector has peaked. Even if a major escalation of tariff barriers is avoided, the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & Productivity (Q2) Despite the continued strength of retail sales in July, real consumption growth still looks set for a gradual slowdown in the third quarter, as the boost from the recent tax cuts starts to fade. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy on the edge of recession in Q2 Q2 activity data were an improvement on Q1, when the economy contracted sharply. But a weak performance from key sectors has still dealt a blow to hopes that President Ramaphosa would boost growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening to come in Indonesia Today’s rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) comes against a backdrop of continued weak economic growth and subdued inflation, and demonstrates that BI’s main focus remains supporting the currency. With... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the warm weather spur spending? This summer has been the warmest in more than a decade, prompting speculation that the hot weather might have given an extra boost to consumer spending. In general, though, there is very little... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), IP (Jun.) & German ZEW (Aug.) The upward revision to euro-zone GDP growth in Q2 will make policymakers at the ECB more confident that they are right to be winding down their asset purchases. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe showed that regional growth slowed for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. We expect that this slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and 2019. 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
