RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA will cut rates by only 75bp this cycle We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates by 25bp, to 4.10%, at its meeting on 18th February. Although the labour market remains resilient and there are tentative signs of a pickup in... 11th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trump aggression sparks long-term re-think The aggression shown towards Canada by President Donald Trump this week has raised big questions around the country's future in three key areas: trade, investment and defence. While some of the plans... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone wage growth set to ease significantly Despite the focus on r* recently at the ECB, we think that wage inflation will be a more important guide for monetary policy. And the ECB’s wage tracker released earlier this week suggests that wage... 7th February 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges 24th February 2025, 10:00AM GMT Will the federal election outcome bring any clarity to Germany’s existential economic and political questions?
Event Drop-In: LatAm Outlook – Trade war, elections & debt risks 18th June 2025, 3:00PM BST Latin America’s economies have proven surprisingly resilient through the first half of the year and the region’s financial markets have been among the world’s be
Event Drop-In: What next for oil prices? 7th May 2025, 1:00PM BST We’d been warning for months about the supply risks to oil prices, so Saturday's OPEC+ decision to add 410,000 barrels per day from June wasn't surprising in that sense.
Event Drop-In: The Future of Europe – Is the renewed optimism justified? 22nd May 2025, 3:00PM BST The shift in sentiment toward Europe – from deep pessimism to renewed optimism – has been striking.
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Outlook – The global economic order post-Trump 11th March 2025, 3:00PM GMT Imagine a world after Donald Trump. The returned president’s rapidly unfolding policy agenda will have bearing on the US and global economies in the near-term.
Event Drop-In: Trump, Putin, the Ukraine war and the European defence question 20th February 2025, 3:00PM GMT Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through European corridors of power with his moves to re-engage with Vladimir Putin, his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, and his threats to
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Holiday data softer than headlines suggest Consumer activity over the Lunar New Year holiday was widely interpreted as strong. But much like the latest PMIs, it is actually consistent with a slowdown in growth at the start of 2025. Visit our... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA will look past strong household spending data Provisional household spending data published this week suggest that private consumption may have picked up more strongly in Q4 than the Reserve Bank of Australia had anticipated. However, given the... 7th February 2025 · 4 mins read
