Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The surge in Chilean GDP growth to 5.3% y/y in Q2 was driven mainly by a pick-up in domestic demand, and is likely to mark the peak in the cycle. Growth is likely to soften gradually from here. And... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf boosted by higher oil output Oil production figures for July, the first that should capture the impact of revisions to the OPEC deal in June, support our view that growth in the Gulf will strengthen in the coming quarters. Oil... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Thailand cooled slightly in Q2, after expanding at its fastest pace in five years in Q1. We expect growth to slow gradually over the coming quarters, due mainly to weaker export demand. 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Drought won’t dent the economy much The recent drought is hurting many farmers, their communities and the agricultural sector. But it is unlikely to put a big dent in the output of the whole economy or significantly raise CPI inflation. 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we care about consumer confidence? Surveys of consumer confidence have been unusually strong in the past two years, but their usefulness as a guide to spending has deteriorated. What’s more, experience shows that both confidence and... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Third quarter shaping up better than expected We learned this week that much of the strength of consumption growth in the second quarter was sustained in July, suggesting that third quarter GDP growth will be stronger than we had anticipated. The... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Contagion from Italy likely to remain limited The sell-off in Italian bonds continued this week, and although we think that Italian yields have further to rise, we suspect that contagion will remain limited. Meanwhile, data released this week for... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity for July suggest that the economy continued to grow at a steady pace between Q2 and the start of Q3. Our Tracker is consistent with GDP growth of about 2.5% y/y and, while the Tracker... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Autumn Brexit deal less likely We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Property prices defy curbs, PBOC props up the RMB One bright spot in the generally downbeat economic data released this week was a further acceleration in property sales and prices last month. The pick-up was driven by China’s smaller cities, where... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira rebounds, Putin policy wobbles The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground since Monday, although policymakers have only done the bare minimum in response to the crisis. There have been some positive noises on fiscal policy, yet... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) Today’s figures show that Malaysia’s growth slowed sharply in Q2, partly reflecting the political transition following the May election. While consumer spending should continue to be buoyed by the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modicare unlikely to have significant impact Prime Minister Modi confirmed this week that his nationwide healthcare insurance scheme will be rolled out in September. Better healthcare provision could bring several benefits, from both an economic... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth remained subdued in Q2 The stronger-than-expected 0.7% monthly increase in retail sales volumes in July took the annual growth rate up from 2.9% to 3.5% and suggests that some recovery in consumer spending growth is in the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
