Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected GDP figures for July suggest that the economy continued to shrug off Brexit-related uncertainty at the start of Q3. That gives us confidence in our forecast that the economy... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Strong FDI inflows boosting external position India’s current account deficit remained at a sustainable level in Q2, confounding the fears that some had expressed of a sharp widening. What’s more, the deficit is now being financed primarily by... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2018) The Turkish economy grew at a strong pace of 5.2% y/y in Q2 but the monthly activity data show that there was a loss of momentum towards the end of the quarter. More timely figures point to a steep... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Boost to GDP from private investment unlikely to last The bulk of the recent leap in GDP growth has been driven by the behaviour of businesses, but firms probably won’t be able to support growth for long. An easing in private investment growth is one... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) Revised data show that growth in Q2 was stronger than initially reported. But the available data suggest that activity slowed in Q3 and we reiterate our forecast that growth will be just 1% this year. 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish election not a game-changer The latest opinion polls suggests that Sunday’s general election in Sweden will be a close call. But the outcome of the vote is unlikely to significantly alter the outlook for the economy or monetary... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak activity data not a sign of things to come The latest official data on activity in the euro-zone have been fairly weak, but the timelier survey indicators paint a more positive picture. Meanwhile, Italian bond yields have fallen recently... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the ISM surveys too good to be true? The ISM surveys released this week suggest that the economy is set for another quarter of growth above 4% annualised. We suspect that will prove a little too optimistic, but the bottom line is that... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economy holding up despite EM problems Despite the steady flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks hint at rate hikes, Turkish GDP figures Central banks in both Russia and Turkey created a stir this week by raising the prospect of rate hikes, but we think that the degree of tightening in Turkey will disappoint markets and policymakers in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2, Breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone Q2 GDP confirmed that net trade was a drag on growth for the second consecutive quarter. But with domestic demand strong and the timelier survey evidence encouraging... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surging GDP, stationary RBA The recent stellar performance of the Australian economy hasn’t made it much more likely that the RBA will raise interest rates sooner because it is businesses that are benefiting most not households... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into the slowdown in wage growth in July as it was driven by volatile bonus payments. Base pay continues to grow at a healthy pace. We expect wage growth to strengthen a bit... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
