China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Today’s activity and spending data are a mixed bag. On balance though, they do little to change our view that momentum is weakening and that policy easing won’t put a floor beneath growth for some... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jul.) Even though machinery orders jumped in July, the recent fall in capital goods shipments suggests that a slowdown in business investment in the third quarter will be hard to avoid. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How is Dubai’s economy performing? Economic growth in Dubai appears to have been broadly stable this year despite signs of weakness in the real estate and tourism sectors. The recent fiscal stimulus package and a step-up in... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Aug.) & Cap. Utilisation (Q2) After dropping to a nine-year low in August, house price inflation looks set to rebound in the coming months, but we doubt that turnaround will be sustained. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected capacity... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Another sharp drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in August. But core inflation remains high and we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: a bumpy recovery The latest retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy made a strong start to Q3 and our Tracker points to growth of 2-2.5% q/q saar. But there is mounting survey evidence... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jul.) July’s euro-zone industrial production data marked a very weak start to Q3 and support the ECB’s cautious approach to policy normalisation. 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus A look ahead to Brazil’s election Brazil’s presidential race is still very open, but the scale of the challenge the victor will face means that even a market-friendly president won’t be able to stabilise the public finances and boost... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German slowdown can’t be pinned on trade tensions The role of weakening exports in Germany’s recent slowdown makes it tempting to pin the whole thing on trade tensions. But the slowdown began before Trump’s tariff threats and seems more likely to... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m gain in Mexican industrial production in July is an early sign that the slump in the sector in Q2 will reverse in Q3. This supports our view that Mexican GDP growth... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected growth in South African manufacturing recorded in July suggests that the economy made a good start to Q3. But more timely surveys indicate that this momentum hasn’t been... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Export growth slowdown looks set to persist After providing a big boost to GDP growth last year, net exports were a drag on growth in the first half of 2018. This does not look like a temporary response to heightened trade tensions. Instead, it... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weak labour market to drag on Korea’s economy Korea’s labour market has deteriorated significantly in recent months, and August data due tomorrow are likely to show that conditions remain weak. The government unveiled plans for a sharp rise in... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
