Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The economy performed better than expected at the start of the fourth quarter. But with a number of factors likely to have weighed on growth in November, October’s data are little reason to think that... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania to tighten purse strings, Turkey in recession The Romanian government’s measures to tighten fiscal policy next year, announced on Wednesday, support our long-held view that GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2019. Meanwhile, the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Key challenges facing Bangladesh after the election The Awami League led by Prime Minister Hasina is widely expected to win the general election on 30 th December. Low wages and a rapidly growing workforce mean Bangladesh should continue to pick up low... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies losing steam Growth in frontier economies eased over the course of 2018 and we expect activity to be soft in 2019. At a regional level, we think that growth will slow further in frontier economies in Emerging Asia... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Year ending with growth slipping Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a slowdown to near 5% growth in November. The government Economic Work Conference just concluded with a pledge to increase fiscal support and hints that... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) The economy isn’t as healthy as the unrevised 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in the third quarter suggests, but providing that a Brexit deal is reached, we think GDP growth will surprise on the upside next year... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Xi’s flawed “China model”, PBOC’s new policy tool Xi Jinping used the 40 th anniversary of the start of China’s economic reforms to set out a narrative which placed state and, in particular, Party control at the heart of China’s subsequent economic... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal giveaways getting ramped up The dust has barely settled from the state election results announced last week, but our prediction that they would trigger a spate of fiscal giveaways is already being borne out. Farmer loan waivers... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Shadows over 2019 lift We expect the global economy to slow further next year which will be a headwind to trade. But the government has recognised the threat to domestic demand posed by next year’s sales tax hike and... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Groundwork for a strong 2019 in place A boost to retail sales in November from Black Friday saw sales record their largest monthly increase since May. Nonetheless, as this followed two consecutive monthly falls, the retail sector will end... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) A surge in sales of household goods due to Black Friday spending helped retail sales to rebound in November. But December might be a little weaker as consumers probably bought some Christmas presents... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Uneven recovery hints at weak 2019 Figures released this month showed that Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest two economies remained weak in late 2018, but that activity picked up faster elsewhere in the region. These readings strengthen our... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Tighter credit conditions will weigh on growth The latest NAB survey showed that firms are facing the largest difficulties getting finance since 2012, which suggests that credit growth may slow sharply. (See Chart 1.) That may be a reflection of... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
