Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2019 GDP growth will probably weaken in both Australia and New Zealand in 2019. And even though the labour market may tighten a little further, inflation is unlikely to rise much. The upshot is that... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft business surveys set tone for 2019 Markit’s global manufacturing PMI dropped again in December, adding to evidence that the world economy ended 2018 on a weaker footing. We think that activity will lose further momentum this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) Despite the headline manufacturing PMI hitting a six-month high in December, the sector probably stagnated at the end of 2018. There were some signs, though, that worries of an impending no deal... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4 Advanced) The advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP should be treated with caution, but it appears that weak global demand weighed heavily on growth in Q4, a trend we expect to continue this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) December’s weak manufacturing PMI will strengthen the Turkish central bank’s case that monetary policy should be loosened. We think that an interest rate cut at this month’s MPC meeting is more likely... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) India’s manufacturing PMI edged down in December, but the reading still indicates that the sector was performing well at the end of 2018. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain fairly... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) While December PMIs for Emerging Asia bounced back a little in some economies, they still indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors lost momentum over the course of Q4. Meanwhile, timely export... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Activity & Labour Market Data (Nov.) Even though industrial production and retail sales fell rather sharply in November, both should have risen across the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further over... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices fell the most in December since the current downturn started and a further deterioration in the balance between supply and demand suggests that prices in Melbourne and Sydney will keep... 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the global cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q4) The slump in the Business Outlook Survey future sales balance looks consistent with GDP growth falling towards zero and is another reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Could the UK top the G7 growth table in 2019? Clearly what form Brexit takes (if it takes place at all!) will be the key influence on the economy next year, but our sense is that there is a bit more upside to GDP growth and the pound than widely... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods; Personal Income & Spending (Nov.) The 0.8% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in November masked further weakness in underlying orders, suggesting that growth in business equipment investment continued to slow in the fourth quarter... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit concerns weighing on spending Brexit concerns may weigh more heavily on consumer spending over the next few quarters. But a further improvement in real earnings growth should put households’ finances on a more sustainable footing... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela debt crisis phase II, what to watch in 2019 News that creditors have started the process for triggering an “acceleration” clause in one of Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds suggests that, after a lengthy impasse, the debt crisis is likely to... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
