Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Nov.) The stagnation in machinery orders in November suggests that business investment wasn’t the main driver of the likely rebound in Q4 GDP. But we still expect capital spending to rise at a strong pace... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Russia forecasts Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (2018) The preliminary estimate of GDP for 2018, and comments by the Federal Statistics Office, suggest that Germany narrowly avoided a recession last year. But this is of limited comfort: the bigger picture... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Flirting with zero Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has been flirting with zero since the start of the year. Not so long ago, it was climbing towards the 0.2% ceiling of the “tolerance band” managed by the Bank of... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World set for slowest growth since financial crisis Recent downward revisions to our forecasts for advanced economies, particularly for the euro-zone, mean that we now think that global growth will fall by 2020 to its slowest pace since the financial... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) The broad-based slump in industrial production in November underlines how serious the malaise is in Europe’s industrial sector. While the euro-zone may have eked out a small increase in GDP in Q4, it... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession talk, ECB getting more cautious Sharp falls in industrial production in November last year mean that Germany and Italy may have experienced technical recessions in 2018. And GDP in the euro-zone as a whole probably increased by only... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Waiting for the Brexit handbrake to be released The most likely Brexit outcome, for now at least, appears to be a delay of a few months beyond March. While this means that we will have to wait a little longer for the Brexit handbrake on the economy... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper euro-zone slowdown increases occupier risks A weaker outlook for the euro-zone economy is likely to see a more marked slowdown in rental growth, shifting the risks to property markets on the occupier side. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in November – the second consecutive monthly fall – all but confirms that overall GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4. As things stand, following... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Falls in industrial production another sign of slowing growth The drop in industrial production in many countries in November is another sign that the global economy is starting to weaken. Although the figures can be volatile, other evidence points to further... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The sharp drop in industrial production growth in November is in large part linked to the shift in the timing of the Diwali holidays last year. Near-term prospects for industry remain fairly upbeat. 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Monthly Estimate (Nov.) The easing in GDP growth in the three months to November leaves growth only a little below the rates seen before the temporary factors of the World Cup and the unusually hot weather boosted it in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Official targets point to low expectations for 2019 The economic targets for 2019 that have been leaked this week signal official acknowledgement that China’s growth is slowing. Nonetheless, the low target for the fiscal deficit suggests that... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Poor outlook for Korea, investment surges in Vietnam With President Moon-Jae-in doubling down on his labour market policies, job growth in Korea is likely to remain weak. We think the economy this year will grow at its slowest pace since 2009. Meanwhile... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
