UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Sep./Q3 2025) Much of the 0.1% m/m fall in September (consensus and CE 0.0%) and muted 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q3 was due to the hit to manufacturing activity caused by the Jaguar Land Rover cyber-attack, which... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI investment The surge in AI investment has so far been more apparent in company reports of nominal CapEx than in real investment in the wider economy. But the latter impact is growing. And while individual... 12th November 2025 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why the CNB’s next move will be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) has left interest rates on hold over the past six months and, while the consensus view remains that there’ll be one more cut, we think the improving growth outlook means... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Car industry still set to lose importance Japanese carmakers are rapidly losing global market share as the country’s vehicle industry is a laggard in the rollout of electric vehicles. While the industry’s share of GDP has held up well in... 11th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where do EMs sit in the business cycle? Aggregate EM GDP growth is likely to slow over the coming quarters but, as ever, there are many stories playing out at country level. Brazil is likely to lead the slowdown while growth in China will... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The AI boom, rate calls and market momentum 27th November 2025, 8:00AM GMT Asia’s factories sit at the heart of the global AI build-out – but who are the real economic winners, and what happens if the bubble bursts?
US Economics Update Taking the pulse of the economy using alternative data Alternative data suggest the economy continued to perform reasonably well early in the fourth quarter. Fears of a renewed labour market downturn, amid reports of mass layoffs at several large firms... 10th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Brazil become a major rare earths player? Brazil has the second largest rare earth deposits on the planet but negligible production. Interest in rare earth mining in Brazil has surged in the past couple of years, although it will take time... 10th November 2025 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: structural reforms lag fiscal improvement South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has made important progress in tackling supply-side bottlenecks in the energy and logistics sectors. But, overall, our assessment is that the GNU’s... 10th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Nov. 2025) Government shutdown weighing on households’ mood The further decline in the already weak University of Michigan consumer sentiment measure to a three-year low of 50.3 in November confirms that the... 7th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP interest rate cuts, diverging growth outlook The communications following the decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, suggest that the risk to our forecast for the policy rate to bottom... 7th November 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Lower growth targets, more barriers to foreign chips China’s leadership appears to be quietly de-emphasizing a target to double the size of the country’s economy between 2020 and 2035, focusing instead on a slightly less ambitious per capita goal that... 7th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia poised to reap benefits from AI boom Australian imports of automatic data processing machines are growing at a breakneck pace, driven by the rapid expansion of data centre construction. We believe the AI revolution will continue to... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economy resilient in H2 Q3 GDP estimates and early data for October indicate that the global economy continues to expand apace, defying expectations of a slowdown. Several Asian economies are leading the way, with strong AI... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
