Japan Rapid Response Japan GDP (Q3 2025 Preliminary) The fall in GDP last quarter further reduces the chances of a BoJ rate hike in December but we still think that the Bank will resume its tightening cycle at its January meeting. 17th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q3) & Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 0.6% y/y, confirms that the war and high interest rates are continuing to take their toll on activity, and the latest US sanctions on the energy sector... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Normal service resumes in Washington We are sending this Weekly again to include the dates and previews of the post-shutdown data releases that have been announced so far With the federal government reopened, the task now is to assess... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orban enters election mode Pre-election fiscal loosening is in full swing in Hungary and, with four months still to go until voting, the risk is that more giveaways are announced, which pushes risk premia on public debt even... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Sep. 2025) The solid rebound in manufacturing sales in September is not as positive for GDP growth as first meets the eye, since inventories of finished products and goods in process both ticked down that month... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Risks tilted towards a bigger hit to GDP from UK Budget The risk that the Budget could prove detrimental for GDP has only been heightened by the news that the Chancellor has reportedly decided not to raise income tax in favour of a shopping list of smaller... 14th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France delays pension reform; Swiss-US talks The narrowing in the spread on French government bonds over the past month may reflect the fact that France has avoided early elections for now and the latest economic data have been quite strong. But... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK minutes, Malaysia Q3 GDP, Korean defence boost The Bank of Korea’s latest minutes show the central bank has become more upbeat on the near-term growth outlook and more concerned about rising property prices in Seoul. This reinforces our view that... 14th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ GDP (2nd est.) & Employment (Q3) Data released today confirm that economic growth in the euro-zone picked up in Q3 but remained fairly subdued and that the labour market is cooling. We expect growth to remain sluggish and the labour... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: growth to struggle as consumers pull back Thailand’s recovery from the pandemic has been one of the weakest in Asia and, with the boost from consumer spending fading as households deleverage, the economy is running short of growth drivers. We... 14th November 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Oct. 2025) The collapse in investment spending continued last month, though we still think it is likely to partially reverse before long. More worrying is that output-side measures of activity, which had held up... 14th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly The risks from escalating tensions with China There is a risk that the recent tensions with China escalate into a full-blown trade spat akin to the conflict around the Senkaku islands in the early 2010s. There are several avenues through which... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too soon to call time on the RBA’s easing cycle With economic sentiment improving, employment rebounding, and policymakers sounding increasingly hawkish, markets see only slim chances of further RBA rate cuts. However, we suspect the latest data... 14th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (September 2025) The 0.2% increase in euro-zone industrial production in September offset only part of the previous month’s 1.1% decline. The big picture is that industrial output is subdued and the sector is likely... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q3 2025) The strong 0.8% q/q growth recorded in Poland in Q3 confirms that it remains one of the fastest growing economies in the EU and suggests that the risks to our near-term GDP forecasts lie to the upside... 13th November 2025 · 2 mins read
