Canada Economics Weekly Record high TSX won’t prevent rate cuts The surge in the TSX this year has owed a lot to the strength in gold prices, rather than reflecting domestic economic conditions. Accordingly, the near record high in the TSX this week will have... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico jumps on the tariff bandwagon, Milei’s defeat Mexico's decision this week to impose tariffs on countries it doesn't have a free trade agreement with (notably China) was probably influenced by trade talks with the US, but it also supports the... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Q4 Outlook, inflation bottoms out, China-India-US relations The main message from our Q4 India Economic Outlook published this week is that while punitive US tariffs will weigh on growth over the coming quarters, India is likely to remain a relative bright... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New French PM, German “autumn of reform” Hints by France’s new prime minister that he will water down plans for budget cuts emphasise that meaningful fiscal tightening in the coming years is very unlikely and support our view that French... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2025) The stagnation in real GDP in July shows that the economy is still struggling to gain decent momentum in the face of the drag from previous hikes in taxes and possible further tax rises to come in the... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Springtime in the Antipodes New business surveys suggest that economic momentum in Australia will remain solid through the second half of the year. However, we would caution that these surveys have recently overstated the... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will resume tightening this year While trade tensions have started to weigh on Japan’s exports, the wider economy has shrugged off these headwinds. With inflation still running hot, we expect the Bank of Japan to leave the door open... 12th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) A recession should just about be avoided, but the economy is teetering on the edge. We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of the year, with the unemployment rate... 11th September 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Update Economy is doing better than weak payrolls suggest The news that payroll employment growth was 911,000 weaker than previously believed last year creates the impression the economy was in trouble even before the more recent near-stagnation in... 11th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold, for now The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% today and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was in line with expectations. The Bank is unlikely to change interest rates again... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank will wait before cutting again Norges Bank signalled last month that it would cut interest rates later this year, but we expect it to leave policy unchanged next week. It will probably reduce interest rates before year-end, but any... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour-market-induced fears of recession are overdone Weak employment data have revived recession talk in several advanced economies. However, detecting recessions early requires examining a range of indicators rather than just focusing on the labour... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slowdown sets the stage for dovish surprises We expect growth in Latin America to slow next year – in contrast to the consensus and IMF view for growth to stabilise or even pick up in 2026. While the impact of US import tariffs will generally be... 10th September 2025 · 21 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
