India Economic Outlook Election will be turning point for the economy Economic growth in India has peaked in this cycle, but we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of this year. Thereafter, fiscal policy will need to be tightened... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt CPI (Dec.) & Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in December increases the chances that policymakers start to cut interest rates again at the next MPC meeting in February. If inflation falls a bit further this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Dec.) & Sweden Production (Nov.) December’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for Norway suggest that the Norges Bank is almost certain to follow through with its plan to raise interest rates in March. But we think it will then... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New (lower) forecasts for the euro-zone We are revising our forecasts for economic growth in the euro-zone and now expect GDP to increase by only 1% this year and a bit less in 2020. Core inflation is also likely to be around 1% this year... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Spending boost from lower petrol prices won’t last The recent declines in petrol prices may boost consumer spending by around 0.6 percentage points in the first half of 2019. But we suspect that this impact won’t be enough to prevent consumption... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Full employment not good enough for BoJ The sales tax hike is likely to trigger a fall in output in Japan later this year but, thanks to counter-measures from the government, the downturn will be much less sharp than after similar tax... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumers less willing, rather than less able to spend It looks as though the festive period was fairly underwhelming for the retail sector. But Christmas sales don’t tend to set the tone for the next year, and we think the weakness is mainly due to... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) A strong batch of ESIs for December provided some positive news for the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) following the recent release of a poor set of PMIs and a raft of weak activity... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Dec.) Following on from the disappointing German industrial production data released earlier today, the drop in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for December is yet another sign that there was a... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s decline in German industrial production adds to the evidence that the euro-zone’s largest economy grew at a meagre pace in Q4. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade surplus will probably rebound in December but will expect net trade will make a negative contribution to Q4 GDP growth. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Households well placed to spend more It’s well known that the uncertainty caused by the Brexit bedlam probably contributed to GDP growth easing from 0.6% q/q in Q3 of last year to 0.3% or less in Q4. But it’s less appreciated that should... 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we take a look at the important elections that are set to take place across Emerging Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic growth. 7th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chinese growth to stay weak despite policy support Today’s cut to the required reserve ratio is partly about managing liquidity ahead of Chinese New Year. But it is also intended to provide support to the economy and will be reinforced with further... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Slow growth, Christmas spending & stockpiling Much like a drone over an airport runway, Brexit is preventing the UK economy from taking off in 2019. But the foundations are in place for growth to fly once (if) Brexit lands. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
