Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2018, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 last year confirmed that the economy grew at only a moderate pace, and with the latest data fairly weak the ECB is certain to announce lower forecasts later... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stockpiling to help Q1 GDP growth, but not by much There is increasing survey evidence that businesses are stockpiling significant amounts of goods ahead of Brexit, which will probably provide some support to economic growth in Q1. But given that a... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy’s strong end to 2018 already fading Saudi Arabia’s economy appears to have expanded by around 4.5% y/y in Q4 of last year, but it is now almost certainly slowing. Our forecast for GDP growth of 1.3% this year lies towards the bottom of... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Weathering the storm With 23 days to go until the UK leaves the EU and no resolution in sight, we appear to have reached one of the most intense phases of Brexit uncertainty. However, the latest figures have been a bit... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Early hard data bode ill for Q1 World GDP growth was little changed at 3.1% annualised in Q4 as the euro-zone posted another modest expansion, US growth slowed from a strong pace and a pick-up in Japanese GDP offset part of Q3’s... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q4) Subdued GDP growth in final quarter of 2018 sets the tone for softer growth this year. And given that the RBA has already adopted a neutral stance, we now suspect it may cut rates as soon as August. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s recession likely to drag on Italy’s economy is unlikely to come out of recession in the first half of this year. Several temporary factors might lead to a small expansion in the second half of the year, but even if this happens... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lessons for Algeria from the Arab Spring The protests in Algeria have inevitably spurred comparisons with the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011 and the experience from that period is that economic growth will slow and balance of payments strains... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil rebound won’t prevent drop in energy investment The negative outlook for oil prices, together with Canadian oil firms’ high debt levels, regulatory uncertainty and capacity constraints, suggest that energy investment will fall this year. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Jan.) & Final PMIs (Feb.) The upward revision to February’s final PMIs does not change our view that GDP growth in the euro-zone was probably just 0.2% again in the first quarter of this year. Meanwhile, the increase in retail... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Feb.) The headline index of the Markit/CIPS services survey in February suggests that at least some of the concern about Brexit’s impact on the economy has been overdone. However, worries about future... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Feb.19) & Sweden Priv. Sec. Prod. (Jan.19) The continued lack of price pressures in Switzerland will reaffirm the SNB’s dovish stance. Meanwhile, private sector activity data from Sweden for January suggest that the economy made a weak start... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Growth in South Africa’s economy slowed to 1.4% q/q (saar) in Q4 of last year, but looser financial conditions and a likely fall in inflation mean the economy should strengthen over the course of this... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s PMI data suggest that looser fiscal loosening has offset the impact of weaker external demand and supported a further pick-up in Saudi Arabia’s economy. In contrast, growth in the UAE and... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but with price pressures very weak and growth set to slow, we think that rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
