Latin America Economics Update Explaining the weakness in Mexican industry The slump in Mexican industry late last year largely reflects domestic problems, particularly in the mining sector. But with the US economy now coming off the boil, the external environment will be an... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession, auto tariff threat The small rise in the composite PMI for the euro-zone, from 51.0 in January to 51.4 in February, came as a bit of a relief – especially as this was the first increase in six months. However, it leaves... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone economies most exposed to global downturns Since major euro-zone economies are more globalised than most, they are more sensitive to turns in the global business cycle. This partly explains why, having outperformed in 2017, they have... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) A rise in auto sales helped drive a better-than-expected outturn for retail sales in December. Sales volumes were unchanged over the fourth quarter, though, suggesting that consumer spending growth... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed signs from the Swiss industrial sector The improvement in annual Swiss industrial production growth in Q4 suggests that the wider economy returned to positive quarterly growth at the end of last year. Nonetheless, while the data appear... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Index confirms that Germany’s manufacturing recession has continued this year. But GDP data released earlier today and the Markit services PMI published... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Growth outlook worsening The survey evidence suggests that the economy is losing momentum and we’ve lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0.5%. If the economy records yet another quarter of falling output, we suspect PM... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing sector has lost more momentum in Q1 February’s flash PMIs show that the manufacturing downturn has deepened throughout advanced economies. The one comfort is that the surveys reported a pick-up in services sector activity. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to remain weak for most of this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian outperformance driven by one-off boosts Hungary was one of the fastest-growing EMs in the final quarter of last year. But almost all this was due to temporary factors and we expect that GDP growth will slow sharply this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update High inventories a downside risk to growth Against the backdrop of slowing global demand growth, the high level of manufacturing inventories in Canada is an underappreciated downside risk to GDP growth. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
