Global Economics Update What’s behind the global slowdown? In contrast to the crisis of 2008/09, the recent decline in world GDP growth appears to have been due to a combination of national factors rather than a single global shock. While the slowdown has... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.4% increase in industrial production in January was a bit of a relief after the 0.9% fall in December, but it does not put an end to concerns about the euro-zone’s slowdown. The increase did not... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jan.) The decline in machinery orders in January is another signal that business investment will be weak in Q1, and possibly tip GDP into another contraction. 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Growth will slow in 2019 The first figures from Q1 support our view that economic growth in Nigeria will be slower than most expect this year. Rather than accelerating, weakness in the oil sector, tight fiscal policy, and... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria after Bouteflika Algeria’s President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s decision not to seek a fifth term in office is unlikely to spell the end of the political saga. Whoever eventually takes over will inherit an economy that... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Jan.) The larger-than-expected monthly increase in GDP of 0.5% in January (consensus 0.2%) is a reassuring sign that, up until January at least, the UK economy was weathering the political crisis at home... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economic growth still lacklustre Economic activity in the euro-zone seems to have remained sluggish in the first quarter of this year: we think GDP growth will be only 0.2% for a third successive quarter. This is largely due to... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 1.1% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in January provides some reassurance that consumer spending isn’t falling off a cliff. But with sales now estimated to have plunged by an even... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s decline in industrial production adds to the evidence that the economy made a weak start to 2019. And timelier indicators suggest that output is unlikely to increase strongly in the coming... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) The Turkish economy formally entered into recession in the final quarter of last year and, while the worst of the downturn may now have passed, the weak carryover means that we expect GDP to decline... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Interest rates to be lower for longer The more dovish stance adopted by the ECB at its monetary policy meeting this week suggests that the upside risks to Nordic and Swiss currencies – particularly the franc – will intensify. Indeed, if... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak growth here to stay The RBA appears to be confident that the labour market will continue to support growth. But this week’s disappointing GDP data suggests that the economic outlook will remain subdued for some time. If... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly On contradictions (from the NPC) There is a tension between the policy stimulus announced this week at the National People’s Congress and the government’s goal of keeping the debt ratio stable. Ultimately, we expect officials to err... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2018, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 last year confirmed that the economy grew at only a moderate pace, and with the latest data fairly weak the ECB is certain to announce lower forecasts later... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stockpiling to help Q1 GDP growth, but not by much There is increasing survey evidence that businesses are stockpiling significant amounts of goods ahead of Brexit, which will probably provide some support to economic growth in Q1. But given that a... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
