Europe Economics Update ECB growth forecasts to remain too optimistic Philip Lane, who is due to take over as the ECB’s Chief Economist in May, acknowledged last week that Q1 2019 will probably be the third successive quarter of below-potential GDP growth. We agree with... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) There were few positives in the February PMIs, with the headline readings pointing to another broad-based deterioration in regional manufacturing conditions. The chances of an improvement in the near... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Modi government likely to continue with FDI reform Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift in... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industrial downturn deepens February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the industrial downturn in advanced economies has worsened. Even the US is showing signs of succumbing to the widespread deterioration in industrial output. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Optimistic investment plans unlikely to be met The Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures survey revealed that firms expect to raise their investment by 2.8% this year. However, with the economic backdrop deteriorating since the survey was carried... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index to a near-three-year low is a clear sign that US manufacturers are getting hit by the broader global industrial downturn. While higher interest rates and the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slows; US-China edge closer to deal The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little better than the markets were braced for, but the bottom line is that growth has now been slowing for the past few quarters. We expect that... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2018) On the basis of this latest set of woeful GDP figures, the Bank of Canada must surely be considering following the Fed and abandoning any talk of further interest rate hikes at next week’s policy... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Impressive GDP figures mask domestic weakness Q4 GDP data from Switzerland and the Nordics released this week mostly showed impressive rates of growth – particularly in Sweden. However, upon closer inspection, the data masked signs of domestic... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) The solid increase in unsecured household borrowing in January suggests that the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU and concerns of a disorderly exit were not causing consumers or lenders to become... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inventories data also hint at a slowdown A look at recent figures on stockbuilding and inventories provide another reason to think that the economic cycle has turned downwards. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.), Final Mfg PMIs (Feb.) The increase in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate, to 1.5% in February, will be of little comfort to the ECB given that it masks a small reduction in the core rate to just 1.0%. Moreover, the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing sector is starting to succumb to the one-two punch from Brexit and the global economic slowdown. The upshot is that there is little chance that the sector will immediately bounce... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Acceleration in growth unlikely to last Economic growth in Emerging Asia accelerated slightly last quarter, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We expect growth to remain weak over the coming quarters. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
