Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The slight pick-up in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in February provides some comfort that the recent downward pressure on their industrial sectors has not intensified. However, weakness in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in February after rolling power cuts hit sentiment in the sector. But we doubt that the actual fall in activity will be as severe as the survey suggest. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) India’s manufacturing PMI surged to a 14-month high in February and once again bucked the trend across most of Asia. Looking ahead, prospects for local manufacturers remain bright over the near term. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Investment will be a drag on growth before long Data on investment spending released this week sent conflicting messages. We put more weight on the dismal construction work done figures and have penciled in falling business investment in the fourth... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The unofficial PMI rebounded last month, after slumping in January. Looking through this volatility, the survey data remain consistent with our expectation for a further slowdown in economic growth in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Limited economic and market fallout from Kashmir Developments in Kashmir this week have left tensions between the Indian and Pakistani government at their most fraught in years, but the economic and market impact of the crisis is likely to be small. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Deleveraging delusions, market exuberance Policymakers are already billing the deleveraging campaign a success. But we doubt that the recent stabilisation of the debt ratio will prove durable. Meanwhile, Chinese equity prices have jumped... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices in the eight capital cities have now fallen 8.9% from their peak making the current downturn the largest in Australia’s modern history, and we expect prices to fall by at least another 6%... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Capital Spending (Q4) The unemployment rate edged up in January and with GDP growth set to remain soft, we think it will creep higher next year. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth edged up from 2.7% y/y in Q3 to 2.8% y/y in Q4, but while the consensus expects growth to be stronger this year, we expect it to slow. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP increased by 2.9% last year, up from 2.2% in 2017, but that acceleration is no surprise given the size of the fiscal stimulus introduced early last year. As the stimulus fades and the lagged... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Indian GDP data show that although the economy slowed in the final quarter of last year, it is still continuing to grow at a decent pace. The economy should perform relatively well in the first half... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirmed that, despite the surge in business and consumer confidence, there has been no Bolsonaro boost for the real economy yet. This supports our... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data released this morning show that large parts of the region ended 2018 on a high note. However, more timely indicators suggest that activity has lost momentum into 2019. Against a backdrop... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
