China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) The continued weakness in China’s activity surveys reinforces our view that economic growth is likely to soften this quarter and increases the likelihood of additional policy easing in the coming... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) We expect the pace of house price declines to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s investment slump, rate cuts One factor that has been missed amid the growing debate about the weakness of Brazil’s economy is the continued slump in investment and, more worryingly, the fact that there is little prospect for a... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter pick-up in GDP growth won’t last While the Bank of Canada presented a fairly balanced policy statement alongside its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% this week, in the speech that followed a day later Senior Deputy... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2019) The first-quarter weakness in GDP growth won’t convince the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, since the Bank knew that temporary disruptions would weigh on the economy. Nevertheless, if we are... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly GDP growth to fall back in Q2; Danes go to the polls This week was dominated by Q1 GDP data releases, which surprised on the upside in both Switzerland and Sweden. But while the Swiss outcome was a welcome sign, the Swedish figure masked domestic... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q1) The sharp drop in GDP growth in Q1 looks all the more perplexing given that various other indicators suggest a much milder slowdown last quarter. Nevertheless, the data will seal the deal on another... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe driven by domestic demand The full breakdown of Q1 GDP data for the economies of Central Europe confirmed that domestic demand remains the main driver of growth, although there was a surprisingly large boost from net trade in... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No change in households’ appetite to spend Reassuringly, following the raft of weak survey data released this week, consumer credit growth held up well in April. And with the labour market healthy and interest rates only likely to rise... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) Consumers appeared unfazed by the political chaos, with the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence rising to a fresh eight-month high in May. But with the economic fundamentals of consumer spending... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1) Turkey’s economy returned to growth in Q1 but the tightening of financial conditions over the past couple of months has probably resulted in a renewed downturn. This reinforces our view that the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Businesses remain cautious Business investment probably dropped again in Q1 and with business confidence remaining weak we think private investment will continue to decline over the rest of 2019. By contrast, we suspect the... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (May) The latest survey data suggest that economic growth in China has yet to bottom out. Given the growing headwinds from US tariffs and signs that the labour market may be faltering, we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market (Apr.) & Tokyo CPI (May) The rebound in industrial output in April coupled with upbeat forecasts for May suggests that the manufacturing sector will return to growth in Q2. However, we still expect the labour market to... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1 2019) The 0.2% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q1 was, in part, the result of temporary factors including a sharp drop in iron ore output. But the early signs are that growth in Q2 has been very weak too and... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian survey data point to small pick-up in growth A recent improvement in the survey data from Russia suggests that, following an extremely disappointing Q1, the economy should undergo a modest recovery over the next few quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
