Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia to slip further Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in the first quarter as a pick-up in the non-oil economy was offset by weakness in the oil sector. We think that the slowdown has further to... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q1) The economy is off to a rough start in 2019, and we suspect that things won’t get better anytime soon. Indeed, we expect the housing downturn to remain a drag on the economic outlook over the rest of... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The weakness of Brazilian industrial production, which expanded by just 0.3% m/m in April, was in part a result of a fall in output in the mining sector, which should unwind in the coming months. Even... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2019 set to be even worse than 2018 The surprisingly-sharp 3.2% q/q saar fall in output in Q1 has led us to cut our 2019 full-year growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. Given downbeat survey data for Q2, it is possible that the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The fall in retail sales in April demonstrates that the housing downturn is continuing to weigh on consumption growth. And we expect subdued consumption growth will continue to dash any hopes of a... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war doesn’t account for much of the global slowdown The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowdown continues in Q2 The fall in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in May provides further evidence that EM GDP growth weakened in Q2. On a more a positive note, the surveys indicate that inflation is easing. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global industry now in recession? May’s drop in the global manufacturing PMI to below the “no change” level of 50 suggests that the industrial downturn has further to run, with the once resilient US economy succumbing to the malaise. 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 31-month low of 52.1 in May, from 52.8, illustrates that the factory sector is continuing to struggle in the face of weak global demand. It leaves the... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back to 45.4 in May, dampening hopes of a recovery after a weak Q1. The fall in the prices sub-component supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (May) The sharper-than-expected drop in the manufacturing PMI from 53.1 to 49.4 means that the index is now at its lowest level since directly after the referendum in July 2016, and suggests that the sector... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (May) The morning’s release of inflation and PMI data from Switzerland for May showed that price pressures remain almost entirely absent and that the industrial sector remains in the shadow of the euro-zone... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) May’s manufacturing PMI data supports our view that growth in Central Europe will slow over the rest of this year. The recent tightening of financial conditions in Turkey appears to be weighing more... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in India’s manufacturing PMI reading in May should help to ease some concerns over the state of local manufacturing following the weakness of the GDP data for Q1. Nevertheless, additional... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates to rise The deterioration in the New Zealand and Australian economies is starting to flow through to a softening in the labour market. Admittedly, employment growth in Australia has risen to the highest rate... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (May) Weak PMI readings and the deterioration in Korea’s export data suggest that the regional economy is likely to have endured another quarter of disappointing growth in Q2, dashing hopes of a quick... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
