China Chart Pack December tariffs likely to be averted As things currently stand, the US is due to extend its punitive tariffs to cover nearly all goods imported from China in two weeks’ time. But the Trump administration has appeared keen to avoid that... 29th November 2019 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth to be stronger in 2020 EM GDP growth picked up in Q3 and, despite a likely slowdown in China, we expect that aggregate EM growth will be a touch stronger in 2020 than it has been this year. 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish policymaking worsens, CEE currencies slip Interventionist policymaking in Turkey has come back onto the radar this week. This is likely to lead to a misallocation of resources and adds to the reasons to think that the country’s next crisis... 29th November 2019 · 7 mins read
India Data Response GDP (Q3) India’s economy slowed further in Q3 and, with a strong rebound in the near term looking unlikely, there is a rising chance that the rate cut that is almost certain next week will be followed by... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: recovery built on rocky foundations Q3 GDP figures due next week are likely to show that Turkey’s economic recovery has continued and we think that year-on-year growth could reach as high as 5-6% in Q4 and early 2020. But policy... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy spluttering, Korea tensions thaw The plunge in retail sales and factory output following the 1 st October sales tax hike points towards a sharp contraction in GDP this quarter. However, we think there are still reasons to believe the... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two cuts by the RBA won’t be enough The Governor of the RBA in a speech this week confirmed that the floor for interest rates is 0.25%. While that announcement came as a surprise to some analysts, it was in line with our own thinking... 29th November 2019 · 8 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp fall in industrial production in October suggests the economy might have been hit harder by the sales tax hike than we were expecting. And while the unemployment rate remained unchanged in... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Core inflation hits multi-year highs across CEE Headline inflation has eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but that was entirely due to falling food and fuel inflation; core price pressures have continued to... 28th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional giants both stumble Figures released over the past month painted a very downbeat picture of economic conditions in Africa’s two largest economies. Growth in Nigeria did, admittedly, pick up a touch in Q3. But activity... 28th November 2019 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s central bank governor, Lebanese debt, Saudi tax The appointment of Egypt’s central bank governor, Tarek Amer, for a second four-year term will welcomed by investors as a sign that the government remains committed to orthodox policymaking and... 28th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s batch of Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for November suggest that, after slowing to a three-year low of 3.6% y/y in Q3, regional GDP growth picked up to 4.0% y/y at the... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: loose policy sowing seeds of a sharper adjustment The recent strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will probably continue for a few more years as fiscal and monetary policy remain loose. But this is likely to cause some of the... 28th November 2019 · 18 mins read
RBI Watch Rates to drop to lowest in almost a decade We agree with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be cut by another 25bp at the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) policy meeting on Thursday 5th December. This... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The renewed decline in machinery and equipment investment in the third quarter is consistent with the sharpest quarterly fall in private investment in three years. And we expect private investment to... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales values fell more sharply in October than after previous sales tax hikes, but that largely reflects the smaller rise in prices this time around. Given that households brought forward less... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
