Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth fell short of expectations in the third quarter and we think it will remain much weaker than most anticipate. As such, we reiterate our view that the RBA will cut interest rates in February... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Combatting global warming needn’t hold back global growth We do not believe that there has to be a trade-off between preventing global warming and achieving economic growth. Even so, there is a clear risk that the world fails to prevent a significant further... 3rd December 2019 · 28 mins read
Long Run Focus Combatting global warming needn’t hold back global growth We do not believe that there has to be a trade-off between preventing global warming and achieving economic growth. Even so, there is a clear risk that the world fails to prevent a significant further... 3rd December 2019 · 28 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2019) The slightly better-than-expected Brazilian Q3 GDP growth figure of 0.6% q/q adds to the evidence that the recovery is gaining some momentum. But growth remains soft, and the central bank is still... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: 2019 struggles set the scene for weak 2020 The sharp contraction in South African output in Q3 strengthened our view that trend growth in the country is flagging, and that GDP will only rise by a meagre 0.5% in 2020. 3rd December 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) November’s whole economy PMIs suggested that activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to strengthen, but with fiscal policy set to be tightened, this strength is unlikely to last... 3rd December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.1 in November, from 48.3, left it close to the decade-low reached in September. Despite the improvement some of the alternative manufacturing... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe showed a slight improvement on October’s figures but nonetheless remain consistent with a further slowdown in industrial output over the... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q3) Turkey’s economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.4% q/q in Q3 but the lagged effects of policy loosening mean that the recovery is likely to gather pace over the next few quarters. The authorities’... 2nd December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) We wouldn’t read too much into the rebound in India’s manufacturing PMI in November but, with policy stimulus already in the pipeline, we think that the prospects for local manufacturers will improve... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea failing to address its demographic “time bomb” Recently published figures showing a further fall in the fertility rate in Korea underline the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The worsening demographic outlook is the... 2nd December 2019 · 5 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (Nov.) The survey data improved across the board last month, hinting at a pick-up in growth momentum. But we doubt this marks the start of a decisive rebound in activity. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) were slightly more positive in November, suggesting that while industry remains weak it is starting to recover. The continued improvement in PMIs for China provides... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q3) Today’s capital spending data suggest that business investment last quarter was in line with what was initially reported. Therefore, we don’t expect a major revision to GDP growth in next week’s... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, CPI (Nov.) The uptick in Korean export growth in November was much weaker than expectations and suggests that external demand remains in the doldrums. Headline inflation was also weaker than expected last month. 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
