Africa Chart Pack South Africa: A year to forget The final round of South African data released this year supported our view that the economy faltered in recent months. Output fell by 0.6% q/q saar in Q3, and the latest figures suggest that the... 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov.) Import volumes probably fell more sharply than export volumes in Q4 so net trade should have provided a boost to GDP growth. That’s hardly a cause for optimism though as the weakness in imports... 18th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2020 to be better than 2019 Economic growth across the emerging world has slumped this year but, with the important exception of China, recoveries should take hold in 2020. Recent interest rate cuts will keep financial... 17th December 2019 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The 1.1% surge in manufacturing output last month reflected both a rebound in autos output following the end of the GM strike and a healthy gain in underlying production. Boeing’s decision to halt... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) The 0.7% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in October was entirely due to a further decline in motor vehicle sales, which reflects the impact of the strike by GM workers south of the border. As a... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect in 2020 We expect the global economy to bottom out around the first quarter of 2020, with growth recovering thereafter. However, the pace of this recovery will be relatively slow and, perhaps most importantly... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus Turning the corner in 2020 After a dreadful 2019, a combination of policy loosening and more decisive measures to deal with problems in the shadow banking sector will push economic growth in India back up to a healthier pace in... 17th December 2019 · 15 mins read
US Economic Outlook Fed to remain on side lines as economy heats up Although trade tensions and the presidential election remain key downside risks, we expect looser financial conditions to drive an acceleration in GDP growth from the second half of next year onwards... 16th December 2019 · 24 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government remains reluctant to loosen fiscal policy Australia’s government pledged to increase spending in today’s Budget update. And its pessimistic forecasts for nominal GDP growth suggest that tax revenue may continue to surprise on the upside... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) December’s flash manufacturing PMI indicates that activity in the sector continues to shrink. However, the rebound in the global manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector will turn a corner soon. 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia’s fiscal rule, US-China trade truce Adopting a more flexible fiscal target would give Indonesia’s government more room to support growth during periods of weak demand without threatening the country’s fiscal position. Meanwhile, Asian... 13th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Productivity outlook brighter for the next decade One of the biggest disappointments of this decade has been the stubborn weakness of global productivity growth. While we do not think that this is a permanent shift, a turn-around does not look... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
