Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) The upward revision to Q1 GDP displayed in the revised estimate is cold comfort given that output is plummeting this quarter. We expect GDP to fall by another 9% this quarter. 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Downgrade, locusts, activity edging up The downgrade of India’s sovereign rating by Moody’s this week had little impact on financial markets, and we think that bond yields will remain close to their current low level over the coming months... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower benefits won’t prevent rebound in spending The government has said it will delay the Budget Update until July so it can reassess the eligibility of the JobKeeper scheme. Reducing the payments for part-time workers could save the government... 5th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switz. CPI (May), Sweden Priv. Sector Prod. (Apr.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in May came as no surprise, but April’s private sector production data from Sweden add to signs that the economy has reaped some benefit from its light-touch... 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Homebuyer grants won’t prevent falling house prices The government today unveiled a grant for buyers of new homes. While grants for first-time home buyers boosted home sales during the global financial crisis, the new scheme won’t offset the impact of... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of lockdown damage as outlook worsens The latest activity data suggest that stringent lockdowns are causing especially deep falls in GDP in Peru and Argentina. But with the region as a whole struggling to contain outbreaks, and limited... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Euro-zone incomes will be hit harder than US On the face of it, the surge in unemployment in the US implies that households are being hit harder by the crisis than those in Europe. But much of this reflects differences in the way that furloughed... 3rd June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 18.8% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in April was not as calamitous as we and most others had feared, but it still highlights that GDP will fall dramatically in Q2 – perhaps by 10-12%... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (May) Whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa rose compared with last month’s ultra-low levels as lockdown measures began to be eased, but activity remained very weak. And against... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland GDP (Q1) The sharp fall in Swiss GDP is Q1 was in line with the general pattern seen in other countries, and Q2 is set to be much worse. However, now that lockdown restrictions have been eased, we suspect that... 3rd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (May) Interpreting the PMI surveys in the current environment is tricky, but the small rise in May’s services PMI suggests to us that activity has edged up very slightly. Nevertheless, fears over infection... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q1) GDP was falling before the bulk of the virus restrictions were in place and is set to fall more sharply in Q2 before picking up gradually in the second half of the year. 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Raising our GDP forecast for Vietnam A sharp slowdown in Vietnam this year is unavoidable, but with the virus contained and with exports holding up better than might have been expected, we are raising our 2020 GDP growth forecast... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Reforms through the back door Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Reforms through the back door in India Prime Minister Modi’s BJP has expedited structural reforms that normally face stiff political resistance, ostensibly as part of efforts to support recovery from the coronavirus crisis. These moves... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
