Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The fall in consumer confidence in November suggests that good news about the vaccine has not done much to improve sentiment in the euro-zone. With the virus still spreading quickly and lockdowns... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September was much better than expected, but sales appear to have stagnated in October and the prospect of restrictions being imposed on all non-essential... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to give economy a shot in the arm We see substantial upside risk to our forecasts for next year, thanks to the prospect of a mass vaccination programme. But the near-term outlook is still gloomy, with November's PMI scheduled for... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Outlook brightening, but risk politicians mess it up COVID-19 vaccines are brightening the economic outlook beyond the next few months. But there is risk that politicians will darken it again if they allow what we’re calling an “uncooperative” no deal... 20th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The further rise in retail sales in October means that retail sales are now 6.8% above their pre-virus level. But the current lockdown means that retail sales, and total consumer spending, will... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The further rise in retail sales in October means that retail sales are now 6.8% above their pre-virus level. But the current lockdown means that retail sales, and total consumer spending, will... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Nov.) While the decline in the composite PMI could be an early sign that the third wave is resulting in a renewed drop in activity, the survey still points to a further rebound in industrial output and... 20th November 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly A dose of reality Newsflow continues to be dominated by the breakthroughs in the development of effective COVID-19 vaccines. But the collapse of Lakshmi Vilas Bank this week is another stark reminder of the extreme... 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
US Chart Pack Vaccine hopes set against darkening near-term outlook The continued surge in COVID-19 infections across the country is prompting a growing number of states to reimpose restrictions on activity. The softer retail sales data in October indicated that this... 19th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much would a vaccine boost Spanish tourism? A widespread rollout of an effective vaccine next year should allow a fairly swift return to normality for Spain’s hard-hit tourism sector and would transform the short-term economic outlook. We... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Benefits from RCEP set to be modest Given that Japan doesn’t have existing free trade agreements with either China or Korea, it is set to benefit more than other participants from the recently signed RCEP deal. However, tariffs will... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The acceleration in manufacturing output in October suggests that, after lagging the broader recovery over the past six months, the factory sector is now making up some lost ground. With inventory... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The weaker than expected 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales in October is still broadly consistent with our forecast that consumption growth will slow to 7.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. But the... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Timely data add to evidence of Q4 contraction Daily mobility data suggest that, compared to “normal”, the current lockdowns will cause GDP to fall less than half as far as in April. Mobility has fallen most sharply in France and has held up best... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
