Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Iran spillovers, CEE activity, Russian inflation spike The spillover effects for economies in Emerging Europe from the protests in Iran this week will largely depend on how commodity prices move. From a political standpoint, the protests are another blow... 16th January 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Dec 2025) While December’s industrial production figures were generally more positive than previous months’, the key takeaway when looking back on last year is that tariffs have not triggered any manufacturing... 16th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone households still cautious We learnt this week that the euro-zone’s household saving rate remained very high in Q3 last year. With households still reporting low levels of confidence, we think they will continue to be reluctant... 16th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: US trade deal and TSMC earnings add to optimism The trade deal struck between Taiwan and the US, alongside another bumper earnings report from TSMC, strengthens our conviction that Taiwan will record another year of rapid GDP growth in 2026. 16th January 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Spending binge reinforces case for RBA to hike With Australian households continuing to loosen their purse strings, private consumption is almost certain to have recorded a bumper gain last quarter. Moreover, as firms report increasingly severe... 16th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How long will Portugal’s outperformance last? Portugal’s economy has benefited from a series of favourable developments in recent years, causing it to outperform most other euro-zone countries. We think this will continue over the next couple of... 15th January 2026 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s growth to ease but will continue to lead the Gulf The UAE’s economy enjoyed another strong year in 2025. Rising oil output will continue to support headline GDP growth over the coming quarters. And while there are signs that that activity in the rest... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We expect GDP growth to be just 1.2% this year as growth in household spending, investment and exports remains subdued. Despite soft GDP growth and only modest employment gains, the unemployment rate... 15th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov 2025) While the decline in manufacturing sales in November was broadly as expected, the surprise slump in wholesale sales suggests that GDP growth was quite a bit weaker than expected last quarter. 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone industry is in structural decline Euro-zone industrial production rose in November, and the outlook for certain sectors – such as defence and pharmaceuticals – is fairly bright. But overall, industry is likely to remain weak and it... 15th January 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Indian equities: another year of underperformance ahead India’s equity market ended 2025 with its worst underperformance relative to its emerging market peers in three decades. Although we expect India’s economy to remain a global outperformer in 2026, we... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany's GDP (2025) The first estimate of annual GDP for 2025 confirms that Germany’s much-vaunted fiscal “stimulus” did not get underway last year and that economic activity remained broadly stagnant. We think things... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2025) The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.1% m/m) suggests the economy is heading into 2026 with a bit more momentum than we thought. But with the economy still... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (January 2026) EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth... 14th January 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) The broad-based gains in headline, core (ex-autos), and control group retail sales in November indicate that household spending remained resilient early in the holiday season, with the government... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
