China Economics Weekly The upside to China’s wary consumers Household consumption in China remained stubbornly weak in Q2 despite the rapid rebound in GDP. But this isn’t a reason to be overly concerned about the immediate outlook. With fiscal stimulus still... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update An uneven recovery, especially within services The detailed breakdown of China’s Q2 GDP data published today raises some questions about the purported speed of the recovery. Generally though, it is consistent with broader evidence of a sharp... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) After a sharp contraction in Q1, the economy bounced back strongly in Q2, with the level of GDP reaching a new high. What’s more, the monthly activity and spending figures show that growth was still... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Industry weighing on Mexico’s economy The struggles in Mexico’s industrial sector suggests that GDP fell by around 20% q/q in Q2. And the weak prospects for the sector will dampen Mexico’s economic recovery over the coming quarters. 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The 5.4% rise in industrial production last month was driven by an even stronger 7.2% gain in manufacturing output as producers, particularly in the auto sector, reopened factories to catch up with... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of Africa’s Covid crisis The number of coronavirus cases has continued to rise sharply in South Africa, making it more likely that the government will tighten containment measures, which would add to reasons to expect a slow... 15th July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in CPI inflation from +0.5% in May to +0.6% in June probably won’t be sustained for long as the effects of the Chancellor’s VAT cut for the hospitality/tourism sectors and the “Eat Out... 15th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Trackers: US recovery loses pace; euro-zone powers on In general, our Covid Recovery Trackers continued to improve at the end of Q2 and in the first ten days of July. Things are even looking up a bit in Latin America. But the US recovery risks going into... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) The double-digit increase in industrial production in May was a little short of expectations. Output should increase further in June but will remain significantly below pre-crisis levels throughout... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2, Advanced) Singapore’s economy contracted by the most on record in Q2, but with many restrictions to economic activity now lifted and strong government support, output is set to rebound over the second half of... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Does GDP usually revert to trend after downturns? On the face of it, history doesn’t offer much reassurance that the world economy will be able to return to the path it would have been on had it not been for COVID-19. Indeed, looking back at all the... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery will be slow and protracted The slump in industrial production eased in May, confirming that the recovery in industry is now underway. But given the likelihood of a renewed tightening in containment measures and the substantial... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The further fall in Mexico’s industrial production in May reinforces our view that GDP suffered a double-digit slump in Q2 (in q/q terms), and suggests that the recovery is lagging those in the rest... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equity rally to boost growth but risks inflating a bubble Chinese equites surged this week, after state media talked up the value of a stock market rally in countering economic headwinds. Output may benefit in the short-run – at its peak the 2015 rally was... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Diriyah Gate, UAE banks, migrant workers in the Gulf The construction of the new Diriyah Gate tourist development in Saudi Arabia started in the past couple of weeks, but the plan raises concerns that the authorities are repeating their past mistakes... 9th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recovery underway as Singapore heads to the polls The main priority for Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which is certain to win tomorrow’s general election, is ensuring a strong recovery from the crisis. There are good reasons to... 9th July 2020 · 8 mins read
