India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Summer tourist season at risk The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and euro-zone authorities’ slow progress with vaccinations, mean that there is a growing risk of another summer tourist season being lost. That would put a huge... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s data show that euro-zone retail sales rose at the end of last year. But restrictions have been tightened in many economies since then and non-essential shops remain closed in several... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The construction industry outperformed the rest of the economy in 2020 by being the first and only sector to see output recover to its pre-virus level. But the unexpected dip in the construction PMI... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Dec. 2020) December’s rise in exports partly reflects higher commodity prices and with goods import volumes above pre-virus levels, we think that net trade won’t be a big contributor to GDP growth over coming... 4th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack A heavy January hangover for trade After having been boosted by stockbuilding ahead of the end of the Brexit transition period on 31st December, exports and imports were always going to fall in January. But the added drags of COVID-19... 3rd February 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone contracted in January. We suspect that the economy has become more resilient to pandemic-related restrictions than it was a... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Dwellings investment to rebound this year The recent surge in building approvals has largely been driven by the HomeBuilder Grant and probably won’t last. But with home sales soaring and house prices rising, dwellings investment should... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response India Services & Composite PMI (Jan.) India’s PMI readings for January suggest that the economy is still rebounding and, with fiscal policy finally being loosened significantly, a decent recovery over the coming quarters looks a stronger... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may extend QE one more time We are more upbeat about the outlook for the economy than the Reserve Bank of Australia. But the RBA seems keen to err on the side of caution. With the latest extension of its QE programme already... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) The robust 0.9% m/m rise in Brazil’s industrial production caps off a strong recovery in the sector over the second half of 2020. But the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and the rampant second wave of... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) Given that all of the major economies have already published their Q4 data, it came as no surprise that euro-zone GDP contracted by 0.7% q/q. With strict containment measures still necessary to... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update A more credible Union Budget By bringing large off-balance sheet expenditures back into official spending plans and setting more realistic targets for revenues, the Finance Ministry has presented a more credible Union Budget for... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 58.7 in January was a little weaker than we had expected, but it remains close to the three-year high of 60.5 reached in December and at a level consistent... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
