Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden GDP (Q2) The sharp contraction in the Swedish economy in Q2 confirms that it has not been immune to Covid, despite the government’s well-documented light-touch lockdown. Nonetheless, the economic crunch over... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q2) Economic activity in Indonesia collapsed in the second quarter. A failure to contain the virus effectively and inadequate policy support mean the recovery is likely to be one of the slowest in the... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Jul.) The July PMI surveys have been a mixed bag but, taken together with evidence elsewhere, they suggest that the post-lockdown economic recovery is stalling. This adds to the case for further monetary... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 8.9% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in June and the jump in surveys for July highlight that the sector is recovering surprisingly quickly. But output is still well below its February... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Uneven manufacturing recovery continues The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in July (to 51.4) should be treated with caution but, even so, it still suggests that conditions in EM manufacturing are improving. The recovery is likely to be... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI provided the first strong signal that the sector’s rebound has stalled in recent weeks. With the authorities struggling to bring the virus under control... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - State of disaster to slow recovery to a crawl The additional restrictions on activity imposed in Victoria this week to curb the renewed surge in virus cases will cause the recovery in output to slow markedly in Q3. 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Implications of another state of emergency The second virus wave that is hitting Japan supports our view that Japan’s economy will contract more sharply this year than most anticipate. However, a renewed state of emergency would probably not... 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (July), Manufacturing PMIs (July) Inflation in Switzerland now appears to have troughed, but it is set to remain frustratingly weak over the coming years and a headache for the SNB. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMIs from July suggest... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The further rise in the manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe in July is an encouraging sign that the economic recovery continued at the start of Q3. But the fall in Russia’s PMI last month adds to... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The small drop in July’s manufacturing PMI adds to signs elsewhere that the post-lockdown recovery is stalling. Looking ahead, the road back to normality for the manufacturing sector will be slow and... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The official PMIs released on Friday had already pointed to a robust recovery at the start of Q3. But the Caixin index published today is even more upbeat and suggests that the pace of expansion in... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jul.) PMIs for Emerging Asia and Korean trade data suggest that the recovery in economic activity across the region is picking up some momentum. That said, the data do not point to the kind of strong... 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) The contraction in India’s core infrastructure industries index eased slightly in June, but the weakness of industry will still have weighed heavily on GDP in Q2. What’s more, there are already signs... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
