China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The latest data suggest that China’s economy continued to recover in July, though less quickly than expected. But a slowdown in the recovery was always likely at some point as the initial boost from... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) The second successive chunky increase in industrial output in June left it a long way below normal. Output will have risen more slowly in July, and we expect it to stay subdued during the next two... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Jun. & Q2) The rises in GDP in May and June mean that in some ways the largest recession on record is already over. But as the full scale of the fallout in unemployment has yet to be felt and as GDP may take 12... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Industrial recovery running out of legs The recovery in India’s industrial sector has stalled. Given the substantial damage caused during the lockdown and the likelihood of a re-imposition of containment measures, the road to normality for... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2020) The smaller-than-expected fall in Russian GDP of 8.5% y/y in Q2 confirms that the downturn in Russia’s economy wasn’t as bad as had been feared as the crisis unfolded earlier this year. The early... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The solid 17.9% m/m rebound in Mexican industrial production in June was largely driven by the reopening of auto factories. While production appears to have strengthened in July, further gains will... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2) Revised GDP figures confirm that Singapore’s economy collapsed in Q2, but the message from the more-timely data is that a strong recovery is already underway. We expect this rebound to continue... 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three possible shapes of a second wave We don’t think that the recent resurgence in the coronavirus in certain parts of the UK makes the economic outlook any weaker than we already thought. But more widespread outbreaks would either slow... 7th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (June) Despite another substantial increase in June, driven by the auto sector, industrial output in Germany remained well below its pre-crisis level. The recovery should continue in the coming months, but... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) Wage growth improved a little in June and household incomes are rebounding now that most furloughed workers are back in work. Meanwhile, the surge “core” household spending in June supports our view... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) The Philippines experienced what is likely to be one of the biggest falls in output anywhere in Q2. A failure to contain the virus, continued restrictions to movement and inadequate policy support... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) July’s batch of whole economy PMIs from across the Middle East and North Africa all rose compared with surveys from June but, against the backdrop of prolonged weakness in tourism and hospitality... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
