Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (July) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in July suggests the recovery there continued to gather pace at the start of Q3. That said, the rise in consumption appears to be slowing, and... 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Risk of the virus dealing a second blow to the economy A surge in new domestic coronavirus cases is the biggest downside risk to our forecast that it will take two years for the economy to return to its pre-crisis peak. It could mean that the recovery... 28th July 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update A better way to measure the recovery? A new type of recession requires new tools to measure it. It has become clear that the activity PMIs will be of little use in gauging the extent and pace of the recovery from the coronavirus crisis... 27th July 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowing recovery will prompt more policy support The first increase in initial jobless claims since late-March last week has heightened fears that the economic recovery has started to go into reverse. Most other high-frequency indicators point to... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly IMF increasing funding limits, SA’s economic recovery The IMF’s decision to expand access limits could open the way for African economies to receive more multilateral support, but the Fund clearly wants countries to move to programmes with conditionality... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt moratorium extension, shifting geopolitical sands The likely extension of the RBI’s debt moratorium will help smooth near-term cash flow issues for firms and households but, in the absence of additional financial support from the government, this won... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will Asia benefit from China’s strong rebound? China’s rapid economic recovery from the Global Financial Crisis did not play as big a role as is commonly assumed in supporting growth in the rest of Asia. We doubt a strong rebound in China from the... 24th July 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Recovery in business investment will lag the rest of the recovery The coronavirus crisis is a new type of recession, but all the normal reasons why business investment recovers slowly from downturns still apply and the uncertainty about Brexit is an additional drag... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Will the pandemic hurt Japan’s long-run prospects? We do not expect the coronavirus crisis to undermine Japan’s long-term prospects. Capital accumulation will slow but there shouldn’t be a big impact on the supply of labour. And given that the... 23rd July 2020 · 21 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2, Provisional) Korean GDP shrank sharply in Q2 on the back of the largest drop in exports since 1963, but output probably bottomed out in the middle of the quarter. The recovery, which is already underway, is set to... 23rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Rupee could weaken even if risk appetite holds up After hitting an all-time low in April, the rupee has strengthened by 3% against the US dollar as risk appetite has returned to global financial markets. But while we think risky assets generally –... 22nd July 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Data Response Flash PMIs (Jul.) Both the manufacturing and the services PMI only improved a little bit in July which suggests that the recovery from the pandemic will be more protracted than elsewhere. 22nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The rebound in Polish industrial production and retail sales in June suggests that the contraction in GDP in Q2 may be in the order of 4% y/y, much smaller than the 8-9% y/y we had expected. Activity... 21st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) While headline inflation was unchanged for the third-straight month in June, we expect it to fall much further over the medium-term. We think inflation will turn consistently negative in the second... 21st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) Export volumes were little changed in June but they should rebound soon as many of Japan’s trading partners are on the mend. By contrast, import volumes never fell much despite the slump in domestic... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
