China Economics Weekly Lower growth targets, more barriers to foreign chips China’s leadership appears to be quietly de-emphasizing a target to double the size of the country’s economy between 2020 and 2035, focusing instead on a slightly less ambitious per capita goal that... 7th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia poised to reap benefits from AI boom Australian imports of automatic data processing machines are growing at a breakneck pace, driven by the rapid expansion of data centre construction. We believe the AI revolution will continue to... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economy resilient in H2 Q3 GDP estimates and early data for October indicate that the global economy continues to expand apace, defying expectations of a slowdown. Several Asian economies are leading the way, with strong AI... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Why is hiring soft despite resilient GDP growth? Lower immigration, increased use of AI and cyclical weakness outside of the main tech sectors are the key reasons for the slowdown in private sector hiring this year. There is a risk that the drags... 6th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (November 2025) We expect euro-zone GDP growth to remain fairly slow in the coming years. Germany’s fiscal stimulus should provide a temporary and fairly modest boost, and we don’t think it will do much to raise... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (September) The rebound in German industrial production in September reversed only a fraction of August’s fall and left output still extremely weak. The poor outlook for industry is a key reason why we expect... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Oct. 2025) The broad-based strength in October’s ISM services survey was overshadowed by the increase in the prices paid index to a three-year high, leaving it consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation rising... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q3 2025) Official figures released today showed that Indonesia’s GDP growth stood at 5.0% y/y in Q3, but we don’t have much faith in the data – growth has been close to 5% for the past few years. Our... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Recession fears overdone but growth to stay weak The recent resurgence of recession fears in Mexico appears overblown to us, but there’s no doubt that the economy is struggling. While most attribute the weakness to higher tariffs, tight fiscal... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs for the region showed a pick-up, suggesting that non-oil private sectors in the Gulf have continued to fare better than expected amid the backdrop of low oil... 4th November 2025 (Updated 5th November 2025) · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow going for EM manufacturers Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
