China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector slowed in January. But that’s not too surprising given that output was already well above trend – capacity utilisation... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) PMI readings for Asia suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places. Buoyant global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) A strong rise in GDP in November and an unexpected gain in December suggest that the economy carried far more momentum into the new year than expected. Nevertheless, as a result of the latest... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy in for a tough few months This week's data support our view that the Swiss economic recovery has shifted into reverse this quarter. Meanwhile, next week’s data are likely to show that Sweden’s economy expanded relatively... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2020) Confirmation that Germany avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 last year is of little comfort given that its economy will almost certainly shrink in Q1 this year. A strong recovery is still likely... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q4) Tough restrictions imposed in France and Austria last autumn to curb the spread of COVID-19 caused both countries’ GDP to fall in Q4. Spain’s laxer approach meant its economy actually grew. But for... 29th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Surge in interbank rates a hawkish signal from PBOC Short-term funding costs for banks have risen sharply during the past couple of weeks. The 7-day depository repo rate (DR007), which has been flagged by the PBOC as a key benchmark and focus of... 29th January 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Skies brightening, AstraZeneca-JCR deal boost The resilience of retail sales in December coupled with rapidly falling daily infections in recent days has prompted us to raise our forecasts for consumer spending in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. And we... 29th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market & Industrial Production (Dec. 2020) While industrial production and capital goods shipments fell in December, firms’ ultra-upbeat production forecasts for January support our view that GDP will rise this quarter. Meanwhile, the... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) The more modest 4.0% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was mainly due to some temporary weakness in consumption, which was dragged down by the resurgence in coronavirus infections. With... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAMA shakeup, UAE banks, latest on COVID-19 The change of governor at the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) adds to the signs that the government will lean more heavily on SAMA to support its efforts to diversify investments and the Saudi economy... 28th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) January’s fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone supports our view that the economy will contract again in Q1. The survey also suggests that inflationary pressure... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Economic Tendency Indicator (Jan.) The rise in Sweden’s Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in January was a welcome surprise and shows that the manufacturing sector remains in rude health. That said, retail is struggling, and with... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) The Philippines saw another lacklustre rebound in GDP in Q4 and big improvements will be hard to come by in the quarters ahead. Output is unlikely to regain its pre-crisis level until the end of 2021. 28th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Dec. 2020) The small fall in retail sales in December suggests that consumer spending only weakened slightly before the declaration of a state of emergency. However, it’s still consistent with our view that... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook At the front of the pack Having experienced some of the smallest falls in output in Europe in 2020, GDP in Switzerland and the Nordics is likely to rise back to pre-virus levels in H2 2021 – about a year ahead of the euro... 27th January 2021 · 13 mins read
