UK Housing Market Update Savings surge allows FTBs to upsize deposits The availability of high loan-to-value mortgages has dropped sharply, and the cost of those that are still available has rocketed. So it’s remarkable that the share of mortgage advances going to first... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Taking stock of the vaccine rollout Almost a month since the start of India’s vaccination drive, it appears highly unlikely that the government will meet its target of inoculating 300m people by August. For now, we maintain our... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Dec.) Data published today show that German industrial production was flat in December and we suspect that output will have fallen slightly since then as virus containment measures continued to take a toll... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Jan. 2021) The resilience of the Economy Watchers Survey in January suggests that the third wave is causing far less economic damage than the first did. That supports our non-consensus view that the economy will... 8th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Two upsides to our upbeat forecasts There are still plenty of downside risks to our upbeat economic forecasts, but the events of this week highlighted two upside risks. First, the rapid rollout of vaccines means COVID-19 restrictions... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The return of Super Mario Mario Draghi is looking increasingly set to become the next Italian prime minister, leading Italy's recovery from the pandemic. That is likely to entail more fiscal stimulus, but structural reforms... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Emergency extension, more flexible JGB yield target While the government this week extended the state of emergency by a month in virus hotspots, with daily infections falling sharply and the start of the vaccine rollout imminent there is light at the... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time to come The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today but committed to keeping policy “accommodative” for the foreseeable future. We no longer expect any more rate cuts, but markets are... 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q4) The contraction in Indonesian GDP eased slightly again at the end of last year, but a failure to control the virus means the recovery is likely to be slow and fitful in the quarters ahead. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Dec./Q4) The decline in retail sales in December largely just reflects the impact of Black Friday sales. Given the reopening of the Victorian economy in Q4 consumption probably still rose strongly in the... 5th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly The benefits and limitations of a “bad bank” The creation of a “bad bank” in India - for which plans were briefly discussed in the Budget announcement - would help restructure the loans of the most heavily-indebted firms and facilitate a clean... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Summer tourist season at risk The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and euro-zone authorities’ slow progress with vaccinations, mean that there is a growing risk of another summer tourist season being lost. That would put a huge... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s data show that euro-zone retail sales rose at the end of last year. But restrictions have been tightened in many economies since then and non-essential shops remain closed in several... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The construction industry outperformed the rest of the economy in 2020 by being the first and only sector to see output recover to its pre-virus level. But the unexpected dip in the construction PMI... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
