Industrial Metals Update China’s metal imports: three trends to keep an eye on With the first batch of Chinese trade data for 2021 not due for another few weeks, this Update outlines the key developments to look out for. Overall, we expect imports of refined metal to fall back... 17th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Jpn Trade (Jan. 2021) & Machinery Orders (Dec. 2020) While some of the rise in exports in January was likely due to the timing of the lunar new year, they should have continued to rise faster than imports across this quarter, with net trade likely to... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q4) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone Q4 GDP was revised up slightly in today’s release, and confirmed that the hit to the economy from the autumn lockdowns was much smaller than in Q2 last year... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production edged down at the end of last year but held up reasonably well during Q4 overall. At the start of this year, we think output will have been roughly unchanged; manufactures seem... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Denmark GDP (Q4 2020) The slightly smaller-than-expected 0.6% q/q increase in Danish GDP in Q4 left the economy 3.1% smaller than it was in Q4 2019. Although activity is likely to slow in Q1 – on the back of tighter virus... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, Revised) Revised Q4 GDP data show that Singapore’s economy rebounded more strongly than first thought at the end of 2020. Buoyant global demand for electronics and pharmaceuticals and strong fiscal support... 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) Thailand’s economic recovery slowed in the final quarter of last year, and the worsening prospects for the tourism industry mean we are cutting our GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 6.0% to 4.5%. 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The strong rise in GDP in Q4 left output just 0.5% below pre-virus levels. And while most economists expect a renewed contraction this quarter due to the second state of emergency, we think that... 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4 2020) & Swiss CPI (Jan. 2021) This larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Dec & Q4.) The media headlines have focused on the record-breaking 9.9% decline in annual GDP in 2020, but the rise in GDP in Q4, despite the COVID-19 lockdown in November and restrictions in December, is... 12th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for December add to the evidence that the economic recovery slowed sharply at the tail end of 2020. This weakness has almost certainly carried... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4. 2020) Malaysia’s economy shrank in Q4 due to a large second wave of the virus and is likely to have contracted much more sharply at the start of 2021. The economy should soon begin to recover again now that... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sanguine January, TOPIX hits a 30-year high Timely data for January suggest that economic activity has held up far better than during the previous state of emergency last spring. And with the government mulling lifting the state of emergency... 11th February 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout will accelerate China appears once again to have successfully crushed the recent COVID-19 flare-up. Its vaccination campaign is looking less impressive and the original target for inoculations by Lunar New Year... 11th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
