Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Aviation sector under increasing stress Unlike the cost of automotive fuel, aviation fuel costs in India have been rising since the start of the Iran war, particularly for international flights. With airlines' margins under pressure - and... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe’s resilience, Polish inflation overshoots The April survey data for Central Europe published this week suggest that the region is weathering the early effects of the Iran war better than the euro-zone. But the surveys also point to a sharp... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: political turmoil adds to rebalancing challenge The vote of no confidence in Romania’s Prime Minister next week looks set to usher in renewed political instability. That will make it much harder to pass the fiscal austerity needed to tackle the... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1 2026) The rebound in first-quarter GDP growth was partly driven by the reversal of the earlier government shutdown drag, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (FSPFP) also expanded at a solid 2.5%... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Feb. 2026) GDP growth looks to have rebounded to 1.5% annualised last quarter, in line with the projection in the Bank’s updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR). With the economic backdrop notably improved for a... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 2026 Provisional) The larger-than-expected 0.8% q/q contraction in Mexico’s GDP was driven by broad-based weakness across all main sectors and strengthens the case for a 25bp cut at Banxico’s meeting next week. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s startling debt build-up is continuing China is now more indebted relative to its GDP than the US, euro-zone and UK and the debt burden is still rising relentlessly. The risk that runaway debt triggers a crisis in China’s state-dominated... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026) The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response National GDP (Q1 2026) National data released so far suggest that GDP growth in the euro-zone probably slowed to 0.1% q/q (data due at 10.00am BST). Excluding Ireland, GDP is likely to have risen by 0.2%, which is a... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – AI & green tech underpin optimism We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech & Hungary GDP (Q1 2026) The much better-than-expected Hungarian Q1 GDP figure, and the rise in sentiment indicators this month, will give the incoming Tisza government more optimism that it may be able to achieve its... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 2026, Flash Estimate) The 1.5% q/q fall in Saudi GDP in Q1 confirmed that spillovers from the Iran war are taking a heavy toll on the economy. This is the flash estimate and the figures could be subject to revision. More... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ keen to hike but risks tilted towards further delay We are sending this publication one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed due to a public holiday on 1st May. The Bank of Japan is clearly worried about the inflationary... 30th April 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2026) The RatingDog Services PMI came in stronger than expected, diverging from its official counterpart. The average of the two was unchanged from March, however. And given the weakness in the construction... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
