RBA Watch RBA will deliver back-to-back hikes in March and May We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on 17th March. The conditions for a sustained acceleration in inflation were in place even before the Iran conflict... 10th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (January) The falls in German industrial production in January and December erased most of the recovery seen in the previous months and left output close to its post-pandemic low. With the current spike in... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy price shock and disappointing jobs report The surge in oil prices will be a negative for the economy, with domestic oil producers unlikely to raise production until it is clear that Middle East disruptions, and the resulting elevated prices... 6th March 2026 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC Press Conference: a little domestic rebalancing… Today's press conference for the heads of senior economic and financial ministries made clear that, while the leadership is looking to drive some degree of domestic rebalancing towards consumption... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices to boost inflation more than GDP The surge in oil prices will be positive for the economy, but pipeline capacity constraints mean that the boost to real GDP growth will be only modest. Nonetheless, together with the impact on... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict to raise UK inflation more than it cuts growth We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers in wait-and-see mode, for now While the spike in energy prices and recent inflation data have reduced the chances of rate cuts this year, we do not expect the ECB to pivot to rate hikes either, provided energy prices do not rise... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly A stagflationary shock for Asia Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict would act as a terms-of-trade shock for Asia’s largely energy-importing economies, squeezing households and firms and slowing growth. Inflation would... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Middle East conflict lowers odds of near-term rate hike Japan looks better placed than most Asian economies to weather the disruption to energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. However, a slowdown in economic activity in other countries in... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2026 China’s government has set some low-key targets for 2026 at the National People’s Congress. The official growth target has been reduced, fiscal policy will be looser, but only a touch, and monetary... 5th March 2026 · 31 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Middle East conflict: the state of play The conflict in the Middle East that began this week could have profound geopolitical and macroeconomic implications for the region. Energy supply from the Gulf has been severely disrupted, and non... 5th March 2026 · 6 mins read
